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Technology Stocks : Forecross Corporation : Y/2000 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick Voteau who wrote (1316)	7/29/1998 12:58:00 PM
From: Mark Jurik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1654

To All: Well, after having discussed all the issues on my mind, here's my conclusion (for what it's worth)... LONG TERM After Japan devalues the yen (my guess) and builds cash flow within its economy, the Asian market will probably recover by next year and Y2K will, by then, surface as a legitimate issue. At home, it will certainly be an issue and those wanting repair will want it pronto (the American way). Fast factory servicing will be in demand, although not in the sky-high volume dreamed of 2 years ago. SHORT TERM It's anyone's guess when the move to a US exchange will take place and at what level price will stabilize at. To help me assess that, I created two models, one linear and one nonlinear, to forecast share price as a function of various parameters taken off the firm's last 5 quarterly reports and that of 16 other Y2K companies. Granted a numerical model does not consider the non-numeric issues such as a firm's TA agreements, unique capabilities, etc. The models also do not consider any kind of panic that may or may not occur next year. I have no way to quantify that. The target was to assess V.FRX share price within one week after the crossover, assuming their next quarterly report was the same as the last. Target data for all the other firms was their respective share price as of today. The two versions gave almost similar valuations for V.FRX, which is encouraging. These are the averaged results between both models ... Switchover month: ____ July ____ Aug ____ Sept Stabilized price: ____ $ 9.40 ____ 8.37 ___ 7.45 The decreasing price reflects the current trend for all Y2K stocks, which may change. Again, this is only a rough estimate. As to where price goes from there, I only have my long term analysis to go on. Regards, Mark Jurik