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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Saul Feinberg Jr. who wrote (9688)7/29/1998 11:22:00 AM
From: Mr. Pink  Respond to of 42804
 
That information will be disclosed on a need to know basis only.

Mr. Pink



To: Saul Feinberg Jr. who wrote (9688)7/29/1998 11:52:00 AM
From: Saul Feinberg Jr.  Respond to of 42804
 
Mr Pink and Chris:

Perhaps, once you are ready to drop your set of names,
we can compare notes. I know every single name
of the sales people who got fired by Noam.

For you shorters,

here's an interesting link to short interest messages
of ascend's history of short interest and the price
action.

Ascend
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Message 6036 of 6066
Reply

Just for fun
TechMaven
(__/M/Midwest)
Jul 29 1998
12:30AM EDT

Just for fun (and today was fun wasn't it), here is a table of short interest for ASND over the past year. Last
Summer, ASND experienced problems with 56K modem and TNT software, then warned of a miss for Q3 in
September, 1997 of 18-20 cents versus estimated $0.33. They took the hit, hired a new CFO in October. In January
through May 1998, many WAN switch contracts began to roll in.

Note the buildup of short interest, followed by a dramatic drop during Q1 1998. As the stock has risen, short interest
is creeping up again.

I'd love to see a similar pattern for MRVC. As I said in previous posts, the road back began this week.

Month Shares Short Avg Daily Ratio* Mid-month
Volume Low-High

07/98 17,964,674 5,711,979 3.15 51-55

06/98 19,107,110 7,952,857 2.40 46-50

05/98 16,248,915 4,896,614 3.32 44-46

04/98 15,662,928 8,155,074 1.92 38-42

03/98 9,480,114 5,975,655 1.59 34-37

02/98 8,263,151 6,556,880 1.26 32-35

01/98 13,104,661 5,896,994 2.22 25-31

12/97 20,491,396 6,205,435 3.30 23-28

11/97 23,474,477 7,440,340 3.16 22-25

10/97 22,087,641 10,172,221 2.17 32-35

09/97 19,704,572 12,655,521 1.56 35-43

08/97 14,724,332 9,389,169 1.57 43-50

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Message 6039 of 6066
Reply

thanks tech,
mike9798
(26/M/nyc ny)
Jul 29 1998
1:11AM EDT

interestingly enough, the peak of short interest
coincided with the low on the charts on 12/97

dailystocks.net

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for MRVCites
TechMaven
(__/M/Midwest)
Jul 29 1998
7:54AM EDT

"interestingly enough, the peak of short interest
coincided with the low on the charts on 12/97"

Yes, clearly the heavy rise in short interest beginning in
September, 1997 was a major factor in the price drop from the $40s down to
$22. Same with MRVC, I think. I did add the stock range to the chart, but
it is hard to see with all the spaces removed (!@#$%^&* Yahoo).

Similarly, when the shorts began to unwind in a big way in January, it
was a major factor in the move back up. Interestingly, the stock is still
rising with rising short interest the last 4 months.

Note also, that as the short position climbed, the average volume dried
up as well (looks like 1+ month lag). Except for very recently, the stock
was much less volatile on the way back up too.

I should also mention that AFTER ASND had risen 15-20 points, ANALysts
began raising estimates and bringing in buyers, but they were negative
(as was the thread) during the "easy money" portion of the rise.

Hopefully, parallels with MRVC will abound

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Message 6045 of 6066
Reply

The MRVC short interest chart shows
some parallels
TechMaven
(__/M/Midwest)
Jul 29 1998
8:15AM EDT

but differences too. Analysis of the two tables is welcome.

Month Short Int Avg Vol Ratio Low-High

07/98 4,294,502 497,436 8.63 21-23
06/98 3,491,961 421,136 8.29 19-22
05/98 2,451,112 446,661 5.49 25-27
04/98 2,961,645 577,178 5.13 26-27
03/98 2,224,600 892,251 2.49 23-26
02/98 1,465,730 424,508 3.45 28-29
01/98 1,844,272 437,199 4.22 21-26
12/97 1,885,764 451,913 4.17 21-26
11/97 1,130,491 596,820 1.89 23-27
10/97 1,062,785 482,934 2.20 36-38
09/97 1,147,054 406,289 2.82 31-36
08/97 1,030,372 261,768 3.94 26-30
07/97 1,706,696 408,142 4.18 31-34

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