To: Norman Klein who wrote (3999 ) 7/29/1998 11:45:00 AM From: Johnathan C. Doe Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Norman, AMTX had something that others HAD to have; it wasn't luck. There was a complete misperception that ADSL technology could be easily developed by larger companies and guess what; that was totally wrong. As it turns out, the technology is so complex that the bigger companies bought the work; exactly as expected; no surprise to anyone that is an analyst and specialist in the area. Anyone that understands what Westell is doing should understand that the years of work they have done won't be worthless either; quite the contrary. It is just simply that the perception is that, for the short term money, it is better put elsewhere TILL ADSL heats up again. When it does, you will see a jump that is likely too fast to react to and all that profit lost. Understanding the inevitability of ADSL, the fact that this could well be the last low before real deployment, I see it as a great entry time. As for the model, H and Q over a year ago saw them as getting high margin licensing fees; I don't see anything having changed from that. ADI is making the thing; always was. AWRE was always design only. They had ADI and DIGI; that DIGI connection makes it all very interesting. What has changed; this stock is FA WAY ahead of where it was when the first H and Q came out. What has changed; licensing with almost everyone of any significance and a great relationship with LU to name just two items. I can take changes like that anytime, anywhere. ADSL-Lite and all of that wasn't around then either. 3 things to add to it; though the licensing agreements is really a long long list since back then. As usual, dumb SI thread talk is based on what the price behavior is doing.
