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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: billkirn who wrote (5020)	7/29/1998 1:52:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6136

Bill, <<got the impression he is ditching all small, under 100m, biotechs and moving into the bigger guys. Both presenters felt the game is over for the small biotechs>> I'm at a loss for words ... Peter how could these guys have so much information, including inside information, and get swept along with the herd and make such ill-considered decisions? these guys are getting paid obscene sums to evaluate companies and manage folks' money. ugh! you can take this to the bank: the quality biotechs are not going away. The big hedge funds can pound these little guys into a pile of rubble, and they'll continue working in their basement labs. Wall Street can turn off their electricity and they'll fire up the generator. Shut off the water, they'll turn on the treatment plant. These guys are not going away.

To: billkirn who wrote (5020)	7/29/1998 1:53:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Bill: I posted only what Von Emster had said at the meeting. I didn't want to go to conjecture. However, since you note that his wife said that he has been shorting, I will now conjecture that...... he was shorting even before the oncology announcement and that it was just a convenient handle to generate some selling pressure as he covers. Moreover, I'll say that his statements have, in the past, made me suspect that he's more concerned with covering hedged positions and accumulation of cash than might seem apparent. With respect to the death of the low caps, this rampant dogma has created huge bargains. I chatted with Von Emster and indicated that I strongly disagreed with his views relative to third-tier stocks. We discussed one issue, selling at almost no premium to cash-in-hand, in particular. He indicated that the fund couldn't buy such low-priced issues, but (here comes the irony).... that such issues were usually reserved for his private portfolio. In general, I thought that both keynote presentations were weak. We need to find or create a basket trading vehicle that allows the sector to break free of dogma and vested interests, to trade largely on the merits of science, business plans, and the markets that they address. These "doom and gloom" guys will be first in line to proclaim the turnaround, the new cycle, and to ride it from the depths. They're profiting from volatility. And, some of them have realized that they can not only profit from it, but generate it as well. Cheers! Rick

To: billkirn who wrote (5020)	7/29/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: margie	Respond to of 6136

The stock is probably up because of a a big videoconference held at John Hopkins yesterday, summarizing the Geneva AIDS conference. Highlights from the XII world Conference satellite and a simultaneous netcast, which I just found out about, unfortunately will be available at (a written transcript should be available later) at hivinsite.ucsf.edu and hopkins-aids.edu It must have gone well, looking at todays stock movement. More short covering. And protease inhibitors are still the treatment of choice, contrary to the media reports. Below are the revised guidelines, and notice that they do not include a NNRTI alone, without a protease inhibitor (like Sustiva) hopkins-aids.edu >>IAS-USA Guidelines: The 12th World AIDs Conference included a >>session on their newly established guidelines for ART [JAMA >>1998;280:78-the July 1, 1998 issue]. Major changes were modest and not dissimilar to the current DHHS guidelines. Notice this part: They don't expect much change in what HIV care providers have been prescribing. When to treat: CD4 <500 or VL>5,000-10,000 What to treat with: PI + 2 NRTIs Alternatives: 1) NNRTI + 2 PIs 2) 2 PIs + 1-2 NRTIs 3) PI + NNRTI + 1-2 NRTIs 4) 3 NRTIs When to change: Virologic failure, individualized and defined at initiation of therapy, with ranges from 50 copies/ml to 5,000 copies/ml. Practical Application:These guidelines have shown only modest changes since their prior presentation one year ago. They are very similar to the guidelines of DHHS. It is unlikely that most HIV care providers who have kept pace with recent developments will make major modifications in practice based on the new recommendations.

To: billkirn who wrote (5020)	7/30/1998 9:27:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Bill and others: I got a copy of the Franklin Fund annual report, 4/30/98. No record of AGPH held in the Global Health Care Fund, also managed by Von Emster. In the Biotech Discovery Fund, there was no record of shares sold short, and there were 60,000 shares of common held long (aggregate value $2,040,000). It was one of the larger holdings, but it didn't quite make the top ten. So, since you got the inside scoop from his wife, one might assume that he sold all 60K shares and then some. His short positions at 4/30 were BGEN, Biora AB (ADR), ELN, ICOS, PDLI, SANG and TKTX. His taste is OK.... he has some great longs, and some really lame ones. Big long positions in great picks (e.g., NXCO) and in crash stocks (e.g., TXB). So..... his long portfolio looks like his short portfolio.... big winners, big losers. Rick

To: billkirn who wrote (5020)	10/8/1998 1:29:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

>> Also saw Kurt. Sat next to his wife. She said he has been shorting << The relative performance of Kurt Von Emster....... 3rd Quarter Mutual Fund Report Performance (Annl.) SYMBL SECURITY SECTOR CLOSE 3rdQ 1 YR. 3 YR. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- FBIOX Fidelity Selects: Bio [Health] 31.53 +0.3% -0.9% +11.6% FBDIX Franklin Biotechnolog [Health] 21.15 -10.6% -20.3% NA FKGHX Franklin Class I: GlH [Health] 14.62 -17.7% -29.2% +5.3% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mutual Fund Sector/Market Benchmarks Specialty-Health........................ -6.7% +1.4% +17.0% Dow Jones............................... 7,843 -12.0% +0.4% +20.2% S&P 500................................. 1,017 -9.9% +9.0% +22.6% Nasdaq.................................. 1,694 -10.6% +0.5% +17.5% Russell 2000............................ 364 -20.2% -19.0% +6.9%