Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (21315)	7/29/1998 2:03:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31646

TAVA TECHNOLOGIES INC has filed a Form 8-K with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

To: John Mansfield who wrote (21315)	7/29/1998 2:25:00 PM
From: Josef Svejk	Respond to of 31646

Humbly report, John, stock prices are based on perception. If the investors' (erroneous) perceptions are that TAVA's y2k work will be over on 01/01/2000, our knowing this not to be true will change nothing. You know much more about the state of embedded systems remediation than the vast majority of investors. Only if/when the majority of investors perceive that TAVA will have plenty of y2k work past y2k, will this new perception drive their investing decisions (regarding the y2k portion of TAVA's total business). I'm not holding my breath. Cheers, Svejk abitare.it

To: John Mansfield who wrote (21315)	7/29/1998 2:29:00 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 31646

John, here is a simple answer to a complicated question: "In the past, the multiples were based on conjecture. Now there are hard numbers to base them on." Josef Svejk exchange2000.com Josef was discussing a different subject, but his answer fits. You are focused on the good news for TAVA (and there is plenty of good news), but the news also brings more realistic expectations. Ask yourself (this is NOT bear or bull stuff, just investor stuff) ... how much Y2K business do you expect TAVA to perform? One hundred Million in Y2K revenue? $200M in Y2K revenue? $500M in Y2K revenue? We know their gross margin is about 60% (excellent for a consulting company) and their after tax profits may be more than 10%. Work up the profit numbers - these will be your estimates. Divide by 25M shares. Add in a value for their core business (up the value if you think the business will increase after Y2K). I did this analysis ... and IMO an optimistic value is about $3 per share. What do you get? Regards, Bill

To: John Mansfield who wrote (21315)	7/30/1998 8:10:00 AM
From: Mr Logic	Respond to of 31646

John That's my view, I guess we will have to disagree. There were reasonable expectations of a ramp up in earnings that should have shown up earlier (remember even the analysts dropped their forecasts?). We disagree on the amount of post 1999 y2k work. Post 1999 will be much more about remediation than inventory and assessment, and that's not TAVA's speciality. If you go back through the thread you will find great enthusiasm for the potential of the CD earnings, which is probably a reasonable reflection of the investor's view at the time. John Jenkins was talking about $20,000 total revenue per CD sale, they pressed 20,000+10,000 CDs. The potential for 1000s of CD sales was the only think that worried me about being short.