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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Strauss who wrote (19088)	7/29/1998 5:32:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

James Thanks for the post--- I can see your point but in my opinion the fundamentals remain alright-- we have all this confusion and we need to see some long overdue selling in internets, I wuld think that we are getting average to good earnings the decline in US export is considered a problem or some expect that GDP growth for the first time may be flat or even negative-- I just don't buy the two arguments GDP is strong and we will see that we will have above 3% growth for the next quarter-- until NAPM comes we may see some softness. I think test of these 1865 area on composite is a normal move after a very strong move up-- I just don't see where on earth the selling is going to come- if IBM'd INTC's and MSFT's or CSCO's are not selling this market is not going any lower than areras I have already identified-- if you remember last time we had that Oct drop we saw most of these stocks dropping to 40's in case of TXN 64 in case of INTC and 70 in case of MSFT now look at their earnings these stocks in a very bearish market in last two days have not even tested their 20 days MA-- we need to see the market cap overall at 10 trilion $-- nearly 4 trillion of it is languishing (RUT and others mid cap) the room downside is limited to 405 at the most, that will be nearly 12% from the highs and it is not very far -- we are left with other 6 trillion$ -- 2 trillion of it is tech-WINTELCO kind of companies in that SOX is at 250 and not 400 so room there is limited another 10% on SOX and DDX plus 5% IIX and NWX have anamolies within sectors some stocks have good reasons to be up there others like broadcom.com needs some good hair cut, for me I can clearly see market getting its 20% of its two trillion with out much affecting the winners-- a ten perecent on DOW cap is already half way achieved-- and I see a trillion in speculative money in stocks which need a severe hair cut-- in all I can see that market will correct but I could see some signs of tired selling yesterday late in the session S&P was behaving kind of differently an anmoly in cash and future gave me some indication but it was kind of very early in the present move-- but I just don't see that if IBM is going higher and AMEX is going higher and WFC is a buy at 345 where thse future guys are going to bring the stock to break this market-- we in the its have a slightly deeper concern I can sell my futures down but I need my cash to follow that is one problem which I am seeing-- I see decision point highlighted by you--- for me 1865 and 8806 1118 or 1115 is first step I will decide about a loger term later-- the earnings I projest at the end of 98 at 49$-51$ at 22 multiple and softening economy and Europe turning around I would think that 1070 is the pivot give and take few points as next quarter shows that exports to ASEA is not the issue-- give me political stability I give you the market at 1200-- by the way these calculations are very unconventional I just don't know anyone who plays the market like this but me being dependent on very little ammunition has to dig something which most of the charts are missing-- I will only be a bear if 1070 is taken out comprehensively on two finish and we see PSE below 318--at the moemnt I am short I have sold lot of calls which are well out of money and I expect them to run to close and bought some lot of puts so far I am doing well-- my longs puts are backed by short puts 50 points away-- to leg out at the right time-- this trade I put it on today as I hated this close of composite.. With best regards and thankyou so much to introduce me to something which I will look more often. I appreciate sincere friends who have time for me and I would thnak every one who happens to post a link where I learn a new facet of the market... Thanks Thanks million times. I will be able to serve you better if I know better.