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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: c-horse who wrote (5890)	7/29/1998 4:51:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 16960

c-horse I agree completely. The lower the component prices, the lower the board prices and all things being equal, the greater 3Dfx sales. I wonder if the Street can get this right. The only dark clouds (sort of) are the slowing slowing PC sales (which should not be too much of the problem if 3Dfx wins over from the already installed base) and as someone else pointed out, the existence of many cheap (though not as good) alternatives. Pat the model was simple because as it was suppose to be a 10 minute back-of-envelope calculation. I also did not use factual info in it that became clear after the conference call to keep it in sync with what a simple quick calc. would have been before the earnings (for example it did not consider V1 vs. V2 elasticity, economies of scale, production curve, ...). I'd love to hear of a better model if you have it. Let's share the knowledge. Chip I suppose the attitude sounds worse on print than it would in person. So much of the communication info is lost without a voice tone and facial moves to go with it. I'll try to remember this, you should do the same. If indeed the weak hands are out and only the firm believers are in charge, then ignoring the day to day fluctuations, we should not have another down week until whenever the first set of tired investors decides to take his money out (my guess $20~$23). It also means that volume should go down considerably. I am seeing some evidence of this but it is too early to call. For now a good indicator would be if we were to go above 17.5 and stay there. Seeing a lot of white candles would also help regardless of their magnitude. As for Biggs, he is a member of Barron's round table and sought after (and highly paid for) by many on Wall St. He is not a stock picker and his comments are not an indication that you should run to the hills (unlike what some seemed to interpret). He is a strategist who tells you what your asset mix should be and where are the best spots to cast your net (not which fish to catch or how). If you'd followed his advice, you'd be out of Asia (short Asia?) last June and long Europe, back into Asia in Late December and out by April. All four of these calls were dead on the money and the fact that a fast trading hedge fund manager with a flare for showmanship decided to take shot at Biggs on his web site does not change any of above. All this aside, I'd respect anyone well known on Wall St. who is willing to risk his reputation and make a public call rather than stay with the flow. Best Regards Sun Tzu One last thing, I really wish 3Dfx would make its presence better known to the street. Here is a news release from ATI which says nothing but casts them in a good light with the street and perhaps even gives their marketers ammunition with OEMs. The same release could be modified slightly to portray 3Dfx in much the same way. Sigh. biz.yahoo.com

To: c-horse who wrote (5890)	7/29/1998 5:35:00 PM
From: Patrick Grinsell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

I did some sleuthing today... and here is what I came up with. There seems to be a lot of angst because of the Creative TNT press release. I'll be the first to admit this isn't positive proof but... From Jeremy Allford's interview: agn3d.com <<Do you thing that you will see very many 3rd party manufactures taking advantage of the MPEG2 hardware upgrade? We have done development and we have a reference daughter card ready with one of the #1 MPEG decoder sellers on the market. At this point in the guideline, all we are going to do is develop new MPEG 2 products, based on customers demands.>> Who is the #1 decoder/DVD-Rom unit? dvdresource.com <<The Encore Dxr2 upgrade by Creative Labs is by far one of the most popular DVD-ROM kits ever sold. Popular, because of its low price and flexibility, the Encore is an excellent entry-level drive for the enthusiast who would like to try DVD but demands a high performance CDROM for their applications.>> opinions? Pat