To: thebeach who wrote (5813 ) 7/29/1998 11:07:00 PM From: Bron-y-aur Respond to of 18016
<<off topic>> some perspective on the the current state of the market FWIW The Fabulous Market Babe Market Mood 7/29/98 Oh, please. Keeping our conversation tied to technology, feel free to clue me in of how one woman, whose name we are all too familiar with, is going to single-handedly derail the near-phenomenal growth across a multitude of sectors and bring the industry to its knees. I'm still waiting. And for all of you doubters out there that actually attributed yesterday's decline to the market now "waking up" to the fact that selective pockets of earnings are slowing down, I suggest you focus on the following: Trading at the NYSE literally came to a grinding halt during the 2-minute speech by Madam M's attorneys. So much for the parade of portfolio managers across the media yesterday, attempting to appear professional and proclaiming that the market was now "focusing on slowing earnings, Asia still being a problem, etc., etc." Too bad they didn't have the guts to point out that within specific growth sectors of the market, notably technology, if having experienced any earnings "problems" in the past, by and large have certainly found and are exploiting ways to counteract them. Not to mention that technology overall, given the nature of the sector, offers somewhat better growth potential than, for instance, betting on a turnaround in the Post-ItT market over at MMM. Now on to our next question... What do actions like yesterday prove? Besides the fact that the markets can get quite dicey, given the opportunity. Well, certainly that the market doesn't trade based solely on fundamentals. You might be saying the mighty "duh" on that one, but if so, you are far ahead of those that continually attempt (and usually) lose the game of shorting a stock(s) based on that stock(s) being traditionally "overvalued." Which may work for a short period of time, but, as history has proven, can be quite painful a majority of the time, given the bull market aiming its seemingly endless inflows of cash at almost anything that moves. Finally, as yesterday also demonstrated, a ray of light is slowly but surely developing in all of this. And that would be because... Panic is around the corner. Which, as previously highlighted, is a good thing. As a quick review, one of the surest signs of this type of "nervousness" ending is complete and total capitulation by the sellers, which leads to an "oversold" condition, which leads to those few that know their companies and their stocks, and are unmoved by the irrationality attached to external events, stepping in. Which can only lead to the followers doing what they do best. So, to sum it all up, continue to use history as your guide here. After all, if you are comfortable with the long-term fundamentals of your companies, you have got to like times like these. If for the only reason that the prices you get when no one else wants them are significantly better than those you would get when the sentiment turns positive and you are left fighting for stock at much higher prices. Which, for someone willing to take the "risk", makes all of the sense in the world.