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To: Oeconomicus who wrote (12064)	7/29/1998 11:13:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Bob, the options report doesn't track "max. pain". Those forecast numbers are just an OI-weighted breakeven level on the puts and calls. I think of them as the market's prediction of the 1-sigma (1 std. dev.) range of the underlying at expiration. I guess I better start tracking 'max. pain', because there have been a few requests for that. :) Mainly, I look at what's happening to implied vols., and how they're skewed over time, and I look for extremes in the put/call ratio. Today was extremely bearihs in the P/C ration, but I'd wnat to see that persist for a couple of days, before I was convinced the market is due to mean-revert, and snap back in the other direction. It's okay to be contrarian, but sometimes "the crowd" really is right. :).