Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eleebee who wrote (21352)	7/30/1998 12:52:00 AM
From: biffpincus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31646

This is the email from Scott that eleebee just referred to ... David XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Subject: I recieved this from Scott L. in the mail .... Date: 5/20/98 9:01 PM Pacific Daylight Time From: Biffpincus Message-id: I got the following from Scott this evening. He sent out these comments to a few long time stockholders. Since there was no indication that this information was confidential, I will post his note ..... biff XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX From: Liolios@PacificGP.com (Scott Liolios) Reply-to: Liolios@PacificGP.com Hello, If you have been a shareholder for over a year I will assume are a fairly happy shareholder. In response to your issues concerning the conference call, I agree with your comment. We had an opportunity to shine and we did not make the most of our opportunity. To some extent the conference calls are a victim of their own success. We had over participation by more than 50 people to bring the total caller # to 248. With that many participants it is impossible to get every body's questions answered. It just so happens the questions that were asked were very poor questions. They did not give management an opportunity to address the real story. (Still no excuse.) We learned from that call. Because of the size of the conference calls we will be changing the format. However, the content of what was delivered was excellent. The roll out ratios were great and the agreements expected to be booked over the next 30 days was very useful (I have never seen a company give that much detailed info prior to actually booking it). But I must disagree with you in regards to the company has been reluctant to promote itself. We have been averaging one investor conference per month, we hold a conference call every quarter, there is approximately 1 press release every 2-3 weeks, we were in Fortune magazine, we had a representative speak toward congress, and we have been on a handful of road shows over the past 9 months. I do not think this represents a company who is reluctant to promote themselves. As far as the stock price, I realize it is extremely painful to watch the price fall. (Believe me I know it hurts). However, I can assure you that the company has never been in a better position. The company is currently working at full capacity, backlog is bigger than it has ever been, the company implemented price increases, employees are now working overtime, they are hiring 150 new people over the next 90 days, they are currenlty in over 1200 factory floors, they have more cash than the have ever had, they just reported their first profitable quarter since the launch of Plant Y2K One, I&A has been rolling into remeadiation, and there extremely fast growing client list reads like the fortune 500 list. But because of client companies slow rate to recognize the problem, it has put the company 90 behind Hannifin's model. I ask you, would you of bought the stock 90 days ago? Did the fundementals seem compelling then? The price is less and the company has more. The new Hannifin report carries almost no consideration for the medical or utility market. It contains no consideration for the Preferred Solution Providers (PSP). This is all upside to the model. But still his new model estimates $1.10/ share for fiscal year ending June 1999. (13 months away.) The stock is trading at less than 10 times that number. You should try to compare that multiple to the other System Integration & Y2K companies. But what I find most impressive is that in the middle of building the incredible growth story in year 2000 solutions, management has been forward looking enough to implement a core integration division to leverage the Y2K opportunity 19 months in advance. While most of the other Y2K companies are fighting forY2K business, TAVA has more business than the can handle (with their current employee count), and have key employees in place for TAVA Consulting. TAVA is already the nations largest independent control system integrator and year 2000 problems represent an opportunity to become the world's most dominant player in factory automation. Not a bad place to be. So although I know sometimes we can lose site of why we invested in TAVA, it is important to remember how much Jenkins and company has accomplished in a extremely short time. Quite frankly, I have never seen another story like it. So if you feel so compelled, please hang in there. But for now, my money is on TAVA Technology. Thanks for your support. Scott Liolios XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXx Now remember this is a MF post from back on May 20, it is a response from Scott L. to a note from Dave Pincus (Biffpincus). I brought this up because I was looking to determine when Tava's shareprice began its decline and what precipitated it. The decline began with the last earnings report on 5/12, thats the last time we have seen a price of 14 and its been a fairly steady decline since. Obviously disappointment of that qtrs. earnings report began the stocks downfall with the revision from the originally projected .04 to .01 which was achieved. Also interesting to note from Scotts letter is his defense of Tava's ability and efforts to promote itself...i.e. " there is approximately one press release every 2-3 weeks". Those promotional efforts have changed dramatically, just in the past 30 days Tava has been mentioned in the media either through Tava's own efforts or by others nine times, now averaging media related events twice a week. I don't think anyone can now complain of Tava's conservatism regarding self promotion. Anyway, this letter addresses some of the discussion thats been on the board recently and though some of the information is a little outdated it still applies. To understand why there has been a continued sell off and drop in shareprice you can start with last reported earnings on 5/12. Granted there are a variety of other reasons as has been discussed, shorts and their arguments (generally misguiding and/or of little relevance but effective), margin calls, etc., etc. But to understand whats happening one needs to start at the beginning, this is when the downfall began. I've already addressed pr, but what comes to mind is the saying...better watch out what you ask for, you may get it. Earnings...we've seen what happens with just a little disappointment, Tava needs to meet expectations and hopefully surprise everyone. Just read Scotts letter telling Tava's story and add all that has happened since, it just keeps getting better. No way is this a $6 stock in winter and spring of next year, again read what Scott says about Hannifins report estimating $1.10/ share for fiscal year ending June 1999. What he goes on to say is the clincher, " The stock is trading at less than 10 times that number." Stock price on 5/20 when this was written closed at 9 7/8. If these earnings are met I believe we'll see at least a $20 stock, probally more and now we have a buying opportunity we have'nt seen since last summer, todays price makes it at least a triple. Hang in there folks, this next month may be tough but better days are ahead. Gary