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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DWB who wrote (1894)	7/30/1998 5:39:00 AM
From: Raymond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5390

It looks like Ericsson is loosing big in marketshare of mobile phones just now to Nokia.But what is maybe more important in the long term for the companies is the infrastructure marketshare.A new mobile from a manufacturer can erode another companies market over a night but when a operators chooses a supplier of infrastructure then they don't change easily.Nokia has traditionally been the biggest supplier of 1800 Mhz GSM networks.Last year they got most of the contracts in the 1800 band.In a couple of months Ericsson has got more or less every contract for the new 1800 band operators that has got licences in Europe.Portugal,Holland,Belgium,Spain,Italy and Finland today. I haven't seen the ordersum from Wind in Italy.But that is probably a huge order.Italy has more GSM subscribers than any other European country I think This is a big shift in the balance between Nokia and Ericsson.The rest Alcatel,Siemens,Lucent and Motorola must have even bigger problem on the GSM side just now. /R

To: DWB who wrote (1894)	7/30/1998 3:35:00 PM
From: Peter J Hudson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5390

This link might interest those that appreciate learning both sides of these issues. forbes.com

To: DWB who wrote (1894)	7/31/1998 2:13:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 5390

Daniel, it's a pleasure to read your stuff. Analytical and reasonable. Critical without gratuitous abuse. Fair enough, as you say, there has been no theft, all talk and disagreement until now. Part of investing involves predicting the future. Part of predicting the future involves listening to what people say. If the talk is of a demonizing nature, as it has been in regard to Qualcomm's selfish, greedy, excessive etc royalty demands, destructive of the whole wireless industry, then one can expect that it won't be long before some collective action is taken. There is invariably some sword rattling before the unsheathing. If I see sword rattling, or a verbal lead up to confiscation, I won't be sitting still. So I rave at the first sign of it. And signs aplenty there have been. Qualcomm too has said 'fair and reasonable rates'. Personally, I prefer 'what the market will bear'. To say Ericsson's CDMA doesn't exist yet, other than as vaporware, while admitting they have a working model is not contradictory. Qualcomm had a van driving around San Diego way back in early 1991 testing CDMA. That hardly comprised a CDMA system. But at least they were dealing only with their technology, not somebody else's, [though Interdigital thought otherwise]. Both were vaporware. The products become realware when a commercial product is ready to go, maybe still with bugs, but being merchantable is necessary. I did define vaporware, and you seem happy with the definition; yes? The model W-CDMA's existence is not less valid because I think it includes Qualcomm's IP, but because Ericsson, Nokia and other proponents are insistent that they be able to use Qualcomm's technology. My guess is that if they had W-CDMA as a van model without Qualcomm's know how, they would not be wasting breath on asking Qualcomm for fair and reasonable terms. If Ericsson are using Qualcomm's patented know how, then they don't have something which exists in their terms. All they are doing is showing that Qualcomm's technology works in Sweden too. Of course Ericsson should try to keep their customers. And I'd expect them to put a firehose in Qualcomm's mouth if Qualcomm was drowning in the wireless lake. But there are sensible and legitimate ways to compete. Dishonesty, deception and conning customers into buying obsolete stuff is not legitimate. I believe Qualcomm was successful in having them legally stopped. My experience in sales was that competitors who lie and deceive did me a favor - maybe not immediately, but it isn't too long before the chickens come home to roost. We can all guess at the respective technology bases when cdma2000 systems are sold, but GSM at 3-4 times the cdmaOne base is just another guess. I doubt that two years ago Motorola thought they'd be looking at their situation today. Nowhere did I suggest there is a court judgement against Ericsson for theft. The only court related defect of Ericsson that I'm aware of, and I can't remember exactly the context of it, was some invalid claims they were making. Hardly an earth shattering breach of commercial behavior. You then went into some discussion on morality, virtue, investments, sense of identity, slippery slopes, humility, charity, community work, what's black and what's white, perception of one and perception of another. Which to me is the most interesting part. But 3G is hard enough to deal with so I'll not say much. If you think I see things in black and white, you are not aware of the struggle in my head to understand things at all. Resolving the haze into shades of grey is my aim and with luck to increase the contrast. I've got a, most of the time, reasonable set of rules of thumb. Being an atheist, I sure am not hoping for a pearl encrusted seat on high at the right of God in the hereafter based on my virtue. Neither is martyrdom appealing. Yours in virtue and sanctimony, [unlicensed] Maurice