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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Step1 who wrote (1305)	7/30/1998 1:01:00 AM
From: chirodoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

<<<<It will be interesting to see what happens next , that's for sure. .....ldp will fix banks but not do a stellar job .....they will cut taxes--but not fast enough to entice market analysts .......dereg of financial sector will proceed like a cyclone forcing businesses to listen to markets for the first time in 50 years ......there will be more dereg to come--once the japanese shift--they go all the way .....i am buying japan as we speak .......stay in touch with any comments you might observe curtis curtis

To: Step1 who wrote (1305)	8/11/1998 2:37:00 PM
From: FACTUAL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3902

I was interested in your comments that most observers appear to be overlooking the subtle changes in the private sector. If you could add more detail I would appreciate it. My views on the problems in Japan are that its sources are mainly two-fold. The first is a lack of feedback mechanism. As you are aware most equities in the first section are held in cross holdings preventing stock market feedback of the type given by mutual fund investors in the Western world. The source of this of course was the desire of japanese industry to find low cost financing to grow rapidly in size, as the strategy of japanese firms was to attack the apparently existing post world war 2 limitless world markets with the same products except doing them better. Size correlated with success.Inability to provide equity feedback beyond a certain point, the international coomunity has forced the devaluation of the currency thereby lowering equity values in terms of world currencies. The sceond problem is a lack of transparency in the financials of companies so it is impossible to value them. The third problem is a general lack of development of institutions able to let aggrieved members of society have their claims fairly adjudicated. ( This is changing as I witness the lawsuits over the football tickets as well as those from the unheated blood products scandal) To what extent would you agree with these assumptions? If you do do you see change in these assumptions? If you dont, I would like to hear your views of the cause of the current malaise in Japan. As you can make out, I do not believe that either Takeshita's approach or Washington's approach will solve the problem.