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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (5217)	7/30/1998 3:14:00 AM
From: Dennis J.	Respond to of 34816

Are you a West Coast-er, too? I posted at 11:30 pdt, and didn't expect any comments tonight. Of your favorite stocks, I like AMAT. It's one of the best. Mike Murphy, editor of California Technology Stock Letter (CTSL) also likes it. It is a core holding in his computer/electronics model portfolio. Mike says AMAT is entering a new product cycle in 1999, and should do well. His 12-month target is 40, and he says to buy when it is under 30. However, the new DT, pattern of higher lows, and rising relative strength (up in recent down-markets), causes me to believe it will see 34 before 30, and may not see 30 again (perhaps in another ugly market downdraft, also judged somewhat unlikely until Sep/Oct). Assuming the DT is real, we have a mini-pullback now. I have been looking at the SEP and OCT 27 1/2 calls. May try to 'steal' some Oct 27 1/2's near 5 tomorrow or Fri. Then look to sell them for about 9 when stock reaches 35-36. But will be gone by about Sep 15th, to hybernate during the month of Oct. Would be a buyer again later for 1999. Re your points 1-5, here are my quick takes: 1. Real interest rates are very high, with inflation below 2%. Expect Greenspan to lower rates when the stock market has cooled substantially. Expect the long bond to continue to work lower towards 5%. 2. Are these interest rate sensitive sectors just in sympathy with all the other sectors? Is selling occurring to move money into other cheaper sectors? I don't know. 3. Expect Japan will get its act together (later rather than sooner), and will lead the other Asian economies back up. No devaluation in China is my guess. 4. Believe GM cannot rekindle inflation buy itself. Real interest rates are too high. 5. Your second 4. Slick Willy will even find a way out of this. No impeachment. Just embarassment. That's my call. 6. Your 5. Yes, black October is coming. It always scares me, and you might own some puts to hedge any long bets. Most browsers let you upload a file as an attachment to e-mail. Try doing a 'save as' with your file, and select a windows version. Or just send it, and let me worry about it. Send to drjohnson@prodigy.net. Best regards, Dennis P.S. Rebuttals welcome to above points from all.

To: Paul V. who wrote (5217)	8/9/1998 7:37:00 PM
From: Dennis J.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34816

AMAT calls (see post 5218) Believe you were considering AMAT stock or calls. Hence my post 5218, where I suggested buying the Oct 27 1/2's near $5, on continuation of the double-top breakout at 33. I didn't hear that you bought, but hope you did. Just got back from a one-week vacation, and saw AMAT reached 37 3/8 last Friday. Thus, could have exited these calls at about 10, for about 100% in one week. Whether you did or didn't, it was a good example of trading a p&f DT, supported by some additional fundamental info. Here, the DT actually helped to time the buy. Good luck on future trades like this one. (I missed the buy on this one, what else do you like? I'll be happy to take a look at them.) Dennis