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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. BSL who wrote (5219)	7/31/1998 2:02:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34811

Duke,>the semi manufacturers will be gearing up for the next geometry (.18 micron?) and the AMATs and KLACs will take us for a great ride. Not yet! Regards, duke60< I agree with you. But with my AMAT cost at $16.50 I can wait having made good $ since 10/96 in AMAT. Looking at past AMAT movement I look for it to bounce off the Bull Support line at $29 before it moves up. However, with the tremendous uncertainty in the market with Asia, possible inflation and/or interest rate increase, the Clinton problem, and Sept /Oct months coming up we could see the breaking of the bull support lever. I have also charted on a spreadsheet the Semi's BTB on the AMAT site with Standard Deviations of high and low's which Gottfried has placed in Chart form as follows. It will be great to see this years low BTB #'s and therefore increases to be made in the future year over this low 1998 year. YEARS AVERAGE MONTHLY MONTHLY MONTHLY MONTH 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 '91-98 STDEVIATION HIGH-DEV LOW-DEV JAN 1.23 1.09 1.12 1.17 1.32 1.28 1.08 0.94 1.15 0.12 1.27 1.03 FEB 1.12 1.2 1.15 1.13 1.41 1.36 1.07 0.9 1.17 0.16 1.33 1.01 MAR 0.91 1.13 1.12 1.07 1.3 1.15 1.15 0.82 1.08 0.15 1.23 0.93 APR 0.92 1.02 1.18 1.05 1.23 1 1.1 0.78 1.04 0.14 1.17 0.89 MAY 0.93 0.93 1.2 1.02 1.11 0.87 1.09 0.81 0.90 0.13 1.13 0.86 JUNE 0.96 0.9 1.22 1.16 1.18 0.87 1.07 0.74 1.01 0.17 1.18 0.84 JLY 0.93 0.92 1.19 1.2 1.08 0.76 1.12 1.03 0.16 1.19 0.87 AUG 0.92 0.94 1.14 1.21 1.05 0.71 1.1 1.01 0.17 1.18 0.84 SEPT 0.94 0.98 1.02 1.03 1.02 0.7 1.09 0.97 0.13 1.10 0.84 OCT 1.01 1.01 1.03 1.12 1.07 0.78 1.05 1.01 0.11 1.12 0.90 NOV 0.96 1.03 1.05 1.19 1.06 0.9 1.02 1.03 0.09 1.12 0.94 DEC 0.98 1.08 1.19 1.29 1.15 1.01 0.99 1.010 0.12 1.22 0.98 YRAV. 0.98 1.02 1.13 1.14 1.165 0.95 1.078 0.83 1.05 0.14 1.19 0.91 YR SD. 0.096 0.092 0.060 0.082 0.12 0.22 0.043 0.075 0.06 0.03 0.069 0.067 Y HSD. 1.08 1.11 1.2 1.22 1.29 1.167 1.12 0.91 1.11 0.16 1.26 0.99 Y LSD. 0.89 0.93 1.071 1.05 1.04 0.73 1.03 0.76 0.99 0.11 1.12 0.84 DATA is rounded. Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the SEMI site. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)." I have learned alot about holding to long with CA when my IBD-EPS, RS, ACCum, SP, Funds, ROI, etc charts and new DW NEW high TA charts when compared with the DW 12/96 Charts show possible tops. I agree with others on this thread that it would be nice if DW site had the data so we could prepared spreadsheets from the data going back in the past in order to see a trend going back at least to 1987 with individual stocks and the bull % on the sectors, leading indicators, nyse and otc. They really do show some patterns. Thanks for your input. Paul V.