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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert T. Quasius who wrote (619)	7/30/1998 11:30:00 AM
From: D.J.Smyth	Respond to of 1153

10:14 DJS Crude Oil Modestly Higher At Nymex; CRB Futures Index Up 1.20 10:14 DJS Crude Oil Modestly Higher At Nymex; CRB Futures Index Up 1.20 NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Commodities futures were mixed Thursday. In New York, coffee, crude oil and petroleum products were higher, while precious metals were mixed at the Commodities Exchange. In Chicago, grains and beans were little changed and livestock futures again were weak. Shortly after 11 a.m. EDT, the CRB-Bridge futures index was up 1.20 at 207.34. At the New York Mercantile Exchange, September crude oil rose 23 cents to $14.32 a barrel. October crude oil added 24 cents to trade at $14.61 a barrel. Among petroleum products, September unleaded gasoline rose 0.18 cent to trade at 42.20 cents a gallon. September heating oil was up 0.42 cent to 37.05 cents a gallon. September natural gas rose 1.20 cents to $1.945 per million BTUs. Traders cited a mix of technical and fundamental factors for the early firming in the petroleum complex. Technically, the products have been heavily sold for a while and are due for an upward correction, one analyst said. September crude's settlement above $14 Wednesday after a sharp inventory-related sell-off in gasoline futures was an encouraging sign, he added. U.S. Senate approval Wednesday night of a bill including a $420 million provision to fund Department of Energy oil purchases for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was viewed as supportive. At $15 a barrel, the purchase would amount to around 28 million barrels, and could be initiated as soon as October. But it's not yet a done deal. Senate and House conferees have to meld their separate versions of the bill into a unified version to send to the White House - which may veto the bill on non-SPR related items. Nevertheless, the psychological impact of the sale was there. "If the U.S. starts buying oil in the third and fourth quarters, it could help tighten things," said Victor Yu, an energy analyst with Refco. Those two quarters typically see the highest petroleum demand of the year. Also lending support was talk that heavy buying of refined products by Nigeria has begun to draw some cargoes of U.S. gasoline to the African country. On New York's Commodities Exchange, August gold was up 30 cents at $290.20 an ounce. September silver dropped 5.3 cents to trade at $5.540 an ounce. October platinum was flat at $380.50 per ounce. Among industrial metals, September copper rose 1.25 cents to 79.20 cents per pound. Gold was fixed Thursday afternoon in London at $290.00 an ounce, up 85 cents from the morning London fixing. Among food and fiber futures in New York: September coffee extended its recent rally, rising 0.70 cent to $1.1910 per pound. December cotton fell 0.18 cent to trade at 71.55 cents per pound. October sugar added 0.22 cent to 8.74 cents per pound. September orange juice fell 0.50 cent to 107.10 cents per pound. Among grains in Chicago: December wheat rose 1 cent to trade at $2.68 1/2 per bushel. December corn was flat at $2.26 a bushel. December oats rose 1 cent to trade at $1.20 1/2 a bushel. Despite modest gains in wheat, analysts said bearish weather forecasts weighed on the market. "The weather is still pretty benign, and that's bearish," said Victor Lespinasse, analyst with A.G. Edwards on the CBOT floor. November soybeans rose 1 1/4 cents to $5.69 1/2 a bushel. The new 6-10 day weather forecast from the National Weather Service shows cooler, wetter conditions across much of the main Corn Belt in early August. The bean crop soon will enter its main development stage, and conditions appear just about perfect for record production. In livestock: August cattle was down 0.63 cent to trade at 60.45 cents per pound. August hogs fell 0.18 cent to 49.12 cents per pound. August pork bellies dropped 1.28 cents to trade at 54.90 cents per pound, hurt by a weak cash market, extending Wednesday's skid of nearly 2.4 cents. Copyright (c) 1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 07/30 10:14a CDT

To: Robert T. Quasius who wrote (619)	7/30/1998 1:45:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1153

One thing that some miss is that although dayrates in the gulf have fallen, they are still the HIGHEST shallow water rates in the world, even at $6K. Deep water rates in the gulf are also among the highest. Persian gulf rates and Asian rates are around $4500 and have been there for quite some time. TMAR's exposure is still relative to getting the highest day rates in the world, the gulf, Brazil and the north sea. day rates in the gulf command a higher premium as the boat market is tighter. there appears to be no relative increase of boats in the gulf.

To: Robert T. Quasius who wrote (619)	7/31/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: JEFF A. KEHL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1153

Let's pretend for a minute that the analyst at Raymond James knows what he/she's talking about. Here's his/her predictions as posted previously: <<TMAR: RAYMOND JAMES decreased estimate for fiscal year ending 12/98 from $2.10 to $1.45 on 07/24/98 TMAR: RAYMOND JAMES decreased estimate for fiscal year ending 12/99 from $2.25 to $0.90 on 07/24/98 TMAR: RAYMOND JAMES increased estimate for fiscal year ending 12/98 from $1.45 to $1.50 on 07/28/98 TMAR: RAYMOND JAMES made new estimate for long term EPS growth of 17.00% per year on 07/28/98 >> Using their numbers and the PEG method of stock valuation I get the following as a target stock price: 1998 - $25.50 ($1.50 in earnings) 1999 - $15.30 ($.90 in earnings) 2000 - $34.85 ($2.05 in earnings) 2001 - $40.80 ($2.40 in earnings) I am filling in the 2000 and 2001 earnings by assuming 17% earnings growth from the $1.50 not from the .90. This seems reasonable to me since the lowest they've been in the past 5 quarters is .47 a share and the current problems with day rates in the gulf and oil prices should be worked out by 2000. So if I'm a Raymond James customer shouldn't I be buying TMAR like crazy? Almost 300% gain in 3 1/2 years. Where else except Yahoo can I get returns like that? Now let's assume Raymond James is wrong and that TMAR's managment has successfully negotiated this temporary slowdown by diversifying in the north sea, focusing on newer, better vessels, and a conservative drydocking strategy. Under this scenario they'll earn about $2 in 1998 and their earnings will not plummet in 1999 but continue to grow. This by the way is what the consensus of analysts listed on Yahoo said and have yet to revise. I'll use Raymond James 17% earnings growth rate. 1998 - $34.00 ($2.00 in earnings) 1999 - $39.78 ($2.34 in earnings) 2000 - $46.58 ($2.74 in earnings) 2001 - $54.40 ($3.20 in earnings) Have I done anything wrong in my estimates???