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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (15038)	7/30/1998 9:10:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

Global Recession risk rising rapidly: LEXINGTON, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 29, 1998-- Standard & Poor's DRI Quantifies Effect of Asian Financial Crisis on G7 The economies of the United States and Europe could be heading for imminent downturn as a result of the deepening financial crisis in Asia, according to a new report released today by Standard & Poor's DRI, the world's leading provider of economic information, forecasting and consulting services. The study, entitled "Asian Depression - World Recession: A Special Study on the Implications of a Worst-Case Scenario in Japan and Asia," offers a comprehensive assessment of the effect of Asia's ongoing financial crisis for the world's major developed and emerging economies. "The economic crisis has taken an unrelenting hold over Asia's economies and we are now beginning to see the effects of this long-term recession spilling over into other regions," said Nariman Behravesh, chief international economist at Standard & Poor's DRI. "We are forecasting a one in four chance that Asia's problems will continue to worsen over the coming months, bringing about a 1930s-style depression that will significantly impact the world's economies." The Standard & Poor's DRI report examines how such a scenario would play out, with Japan's financial crisis worsening, the yen depreciating to below 200 to the dollar and economic output declining by up to 4 percent this year and almost 8 percent in 1999. Despite last week's appointment of Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi, and the introduction of a $120 billion fiscal package to help rejuvenate the economy, Standard & Poor's DRI remains bearish on the overall outlook for Japan's economy, which accounts for 70 percent of Asia's overall economic output. "Since the problems in Asia began over a year ago, we have taken a consistently pessimistic view particularly for Japan, where structural problems such as excess capacity and collapsing asset prices have been prevalent factors in the downturn," said Behravesh. "The economic fundamentals point to a country in deep economic crisis, which is potentially disastrous for the other economies in the region and beyond." This latest study by Standard & Poor's DRI, one in a series assessing the state of the world's economies, demonstrates how a secondary phase of recession in Asia is now affecting Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and China where growth is unlikely to reach five percent this year. Says Behravesh: "The recessionary tidal wave that swept over Japan, Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia a year ago is now engulfing other parts of Asia, with the waters now also lapping on to the shores of the United States, Europe and other G7 economies." The potential impact of a deepening recession in Asia on the economies of the United States, Germany, Britain and France are also addressed in the Standard & Poor's DRI report, which echoes the recent warnings given by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan of a forthcoming economic downturn. Under this worst-case scenario, output would drop 0.5 percent in the United States and export volumes would drop by approximately 2.4 percent. The study lists the top industry sectors in the U. S. and Europe expected to suffer most from such a decline in exports to Asia. For example, Standard & Poor's DRI estimates a potential cumulative loss of revenue from 1998 to 2002 of approximately $11 billion (1995 dollars) for the U.S. automobile industry. "As the effects of the crisis in Asia continue to take their toll on both earnings from U.S. corporations and on trade figures, consumer confidence may falter - with significant repercussions for an already jittery stock market," said Behravesh. "In fact, our current worst-case projections indicate a potential 25 percent drop in the overall value of stocks by 1999." In Europe, which is less exposed to Asia because of lower export volumes to the region than the United States, the effects of the upheaval in Asia would likely be less forceful. While the worsening crisis would be unlikely to cause recession, particularly as many investors seek refuge in the euro, the overall pace of growth in the recently formed European Monetary Union would stall. Germany's growth rate would drop to around 1 percent, causing a hike in unemployment to approximately 12 percent by the year 2000. "Europe is less exposed to the long-term effects of Asian recession than the United States and is less likely to suffer directly from this deep recession. However, if Wall Street weakens, the European bourses will come under increasing pressure," said Behravesh.

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (15038)	7/30/1998 11:25:00 AM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116753

The problem here is we are "prechin' to the choir". While that upgrade for PDG today is great, We don't need money to flow from member of the XAU to another, of from oil producers or even bullion to a member of the XAU. We need converts. With every new person that comes over to us I feel better. But it is doing no good! Even when a if big Wall Street house upgrades an XAU member, it gets no to little press, while a two bit internet company with no property, few assets, and only a dream sees a downgrade & goes up only due to press treatment. It's all right, Remember "If you want a friend on Wall Street buy a dog". rh