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To: FuzzFace who wrote (13986)7/30/1998 9:51:00 AM
From: DavidG  Respond to of 25814
 
Edwin,

Great post. I always felt this Sony rumor mill was a big problem for LSI and was always disappointed in Wilf for not responding to it. I guess he realizes it now and apparently is aggressively talking about it to give those short minded hedge funds a dose of their own medicine.

Good for you WILF !!!!!!!

DavidG



To: FuzzFace who wrote (13986)7/30/1998 11:34:00 AM
From: Jock Hutchinson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 25814
 
Not only does Playstation account for less than 10% of LSI's revenues, but one can safely assume that it also accounts for less than 10% of LSI's profits given the breakout on the recent quarter. Specifically, one must remember that consumers is a part of slightly lower margin contracts won by LSI rather than the higher margin work in networking. Thus, it is likely that Playstation accounts for less than the percentage of revenue that it generates. But that is not all. When Symbios is completed, Playstation on a pro forma basis will account for no more than 6% of LSI's revenues. Let me see now. One company is making 25% of its profits in a product, and the other company is making 6% of its revenue/profits supplying that company a key component for the product. Who has gained a better hand in negotiations? Better yet, given Playstation II's near guaranteed success, who can now afford to give Sony a better deal simply because it has added 50% to its revenue stream with the deal for Symbios that will be accretive to earnings in '99?

Seems to me that there is another as yet unacknowledged ancillary benefit of the Symbios deal. Not only does Symbios bring added breadth in the fastest growing segment of the high end storage market, but Symbios gives LSI twice the protection in preventing a downturn in all major markets in which LSI plays--assuming that all of these markets operate independently of each other. How? First, let's assume that there are two "bright lines" for each product group each quarter. The first "bright line" reflects overall business conditions, to which no group is immune. The second "bright line" pertains only to the individual group, and to some extent these groups are independent of each other. This accounts for such recent CC statements as networking was great, but consumers were down, and communications were up. Assuming that these segments have an independent component relative to each other, the chance of all three segments simultaneously having a poor quarter below the bright line is one in eight. But with an additional storage division, this makes those chances one in sixteen. Therefore, the addition of Symbios cuts in half the possibility of all four groups having a bad quarter. Obviously this is mitigated by the fact that there is some sort of seasonality-most notably in consumers. However, the addition of one division does add stability to the earnings stream, which in turn adds stability to shareholder value. Shareholder value of course means better employee earnings given the numerous employees at LSI who are in line for options.



To: FuzzFace who wrote (13986)7/30/1998 8:10:00 PM
From: thomas hayden  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25814
 
A question about Wilf's comments at the RS conference. The quote was "I'm convinced there is a handful of hedge funds with one trick up their sleeves. Their one trick is to short LSI based on Playstation rumors. But I've got bad news for them, Playstation accounts for less than 10% of our revenues."

I'm just trying to read between the lines here, but is Wilf trying to set us up for the news that LSI won't get the next generation Playstation. I don't care if it is 2% or 25% of the business, in times like these every bit is very important. The real cost will come in the what if. As everyone knows the next generation will be a huge hit and would make a tremendous difference to LSI. Also the negative news headlines would be a dark, dark cloud over this company. Conversely, if LSI did win this business the positive news would be better than a Tom Kurlac upgrade. (Remember how much the lady at Gruntal dwelled on the topic during the CC. A lot of people are watching closely, rightly or wrongly, they are watching what happens with Playstation)

Can someone bring me up to date on the future of Playstation. When will the new version be in the stores, when will Sony make a decision on who will supply the chips, and what are LSI's chances on getting this business. All that I can recall LSI saying about this was we have a strong relationship with Sony and we believe it will continue in the future. What a bunch of crap. More flim flam talk. It sounds like Bill Clinton talking about Monica.