To: Tony Viola who wrote (61493 ) 7/30/1998 9:49:00 PM From: Fred Fahmy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
Tony, <To those of you pioneers on SI Intel like Fred, Burt, Harry, Jules, Ibexx, Mary, et al (don't think Paul had arrived yet) you probably remember Carl Johnson of Infrastructure publication.> I remember well.... <He had all kinds of reasons why Intel stock should go down , and I forget what they were, but can guess. As INTC was on its way to eventually tripling in a little less than two years, he finally disappeared from SI, I'm guessing about late summer '96 when it really started to crank. I think he gave up debating the above SI Intel luminaries when he saw he was convincing no-one, and the stock was screaming.> Yup...I remember debating with him. He was projecting back then (about two years ago) that Cyrix and AMD (and possibly others) were going to take "30%" share away from Intel "soon". It was the same exact story we here now from many pundits and that we have heard many times before in the past, namely: 'the competition has caught up...Intel doesn't offer anything unique...Cyrix and AMD are going to do this and that...etc, etc'. Even now, despite the worst of conditions and what several talking heads are now calling one of the worst downturns in the semi-industry ever, Intel has remained a profit generating machine. Some people will never understand, but there isn't going to be a time when Intel is hurting and AMD and Cyrix/NSM are prospering. Just ain't gonna happen. Intel's competitors may turn things around as the overall market improves but this will also mean that INTC will be doing that much better. Here's how it works....when the PC industry is robust and demand is strong Intel "kicks serious butt" and even Intel's competitors may be profitable. If the market turns soft then Intel makes a few hundred million less in profit....and Cyrix/NSM and AMD sink (like now). Intel is the premier semiconductor company in the world....and although the industry can be cyclical, if you are a long term investor, INTC is the single best semi-conductor stock to hold. This fact hasn't changed because people are buying PC's for under $1000. As goes the expansion of the global technology revolution so will go INTC. Very, very simple concept. If you think technology is going away and is going to play a smaller and smaller part in our lives each year, then INTC is a very bad investment. If on the other hand, you understand that we are at the very beginning of a new global technology age....you know why INTC remains one of the biggest no-brainers in the market. Oh well....enough preaching to the choir <g> Good luck, FF