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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mama Bear who wrote (12147)	7/30/1998 2:16:00 PM
From: Marconi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Hello Mrs. Payne: With NVX, I mean they have been promising approval for years and kept missing the projection--usually due to delays and need for more data. They have many, many press releases available through the company for further information. I read a parallel description of several of their releases by an industry expert maybe a year ago. The expert made sense and had credibility with me based on his comments; in contrast the NVX press releases seemed like spin doctoring, grandiose promises of potential, there are fortunes to be made in vaccines, etc. If I recall from then, for NVX to do what NVX planned, they would have had to taken over the entire US vaccine market--which piqued my interest in them as a short. Since then ZITL and other issues have my attention. I have not done anything significantly to my recall in shorting NVX--maybe a few hundred shares some time back, no position at this time, although I tried this morning. Now there is resolution of the NVX story. I think they can be counted on for 4 points off any peak based on 'news'. They continue to have very little or no status as a going concern. As long as they remain narrowed in vaccines, I estimate NVX has little potential, but to go down. I am unimpressed by their R&D staff and work--although highly self-accoladed. NVX is not a rush play. The Certiva vaccine story peaked in the last two years, and now with FDA approval, NVX is half the price of the peak in uncertainty. Best regards, m