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To: MKL who wrote (5328)7/30/1998 3:35:00 PM
From: Sam  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 7841
 
Yes, but the excess capacity among drive vendors stemmed more from the second tier players like Fujitsu and Maxtor--not to mention a more aggressive IBM--trying to gain greater market share, and boosting their capacity and their pricing aggressiveness than from the erstwhile top 3 drive vendors not forecasting demand accurately. SEG, QNTM and WDC allowed the smaller players room to expand by not being fast enough to design new products that kept incorporating higher aerial densities, and maintaining the cost advantage that should have been theirs by virtue of their much higher volumes, if they were executing properly, and by not cannibalizing their own products quickly enough. The problems in the media companies was more from companies like SEG, WDC and IBM increasing their internal capacity, as well as HMTT increasing their capacity (and of course, KMAG and STMD not upgrading their equipment). The head problems [pun intended] of RDRT and APM came from not transitioning into MR heads soon enough, and the Japanese essentially letting them have the end of the run for TFI heads, sort of suckering them in rather like the Sioux did to Custer.

Demand, at least so far, has not been that great a problem. Perhaps it will be down the road, perhaps IDC is correct. I tend to think that people will buy as much memory as they can, and if they can store music or videos or games on their PC drive for a reasonable cost, they will do it; if they can have all of their archives online for quick reference for a reasonable cost, they will do it. Price rules, but speed and convenience also counts.

That at least is my take in hindsight, with the help these threads (should footnote especially people like Lawrence K, Stitch, Gus and a few others here) on how this happened. Of course, it may have happened anyway, as the Koreans and Japanese love to play the market share/razor thin margin game in sectors like this one. Perhaps they would have entered the fray anyway. There are always hired guns out there wanting to build businesses like this one which have few proprietary constraints--reading Maxtor's filings, Michael Cannon did alright for himself building up Maxtor's business. Not many companies report that they would have reported a profit in a quarter if it weren't for the bonus that they gave their CEO.