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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19110)	7/30/1998 1:44:00 PM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Rates you say:: 7.30.98 Q: What happens when the bond contract is down 4 days in a row and the S&P 500 has declined more than 5% over the last 8 trading days? A: Over then next three days, 10 year note yields fall by 20 basis points on average in 10 of 12 past occurrences. This rally develops into a healthy decline in yields over the next three weeks. Let variable values: theSec = USNOTE10Y Date Day _3d _3w 01/11/1978 Wed -0.05 -0.07 10/19/1978 Thu 0.00 0.23 03/25/1980 Tue -0.38 -1.53 12/11/1980 Thu -0.06 -1.14 08/25/1981 Tue -0.10 -0.27 09/25/1981 Fri 0.16 -0.74 10/19/1987 Mon -1.18 -1.37 08/15/1988 Mon -0.02 -0.37 08/07/1990 Tue -0.10 0.16 10/11/1990 Thu -0.17 -0.37 01/09/1991 Wed -0.07 -0.21 11/22/1991 Fri -0.02 -0.23 07/29/1998 Wed NaN NaN Avg -0.17 -0.49 AvgPos 0.16 0.19 AvgNeg -0.21 -0.63 PctPos 8.33 16.67 PctNeg 83.33 83.33 Maximum 0.16 0.23 Minimum -1.18 -1.53 StdDev 0.34 0.58 ZStat -0.48 -0.85 Variance 0.12 0.33 13 Occurrences

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19110)	7/30/1998 1:54:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

I get a lot of pat on the back but sometime I do feel like sharing posts like this-- ''Just wanted you to know I've been reading your thread for a while and have the utmost respect for you. My backround is in mathematical economics and its rare to see anyone that invests integrate economic basics so intuitively into practical day to day trading. I'm no trader, but its fun to read and just want to say thanks.'' Just want to say thank you very much-- it is just nothing buy free flow of ideas--- just let thme go and find areas which others may overlook or are too non traditional-- this thread is about unconventional way of looking at markets and we try to highlight contararian thinking-- but I thank you Gerard for this very kind message..