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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JPB_II who wrote (5907)	7/30/1998 4:09:00 PM
From: Michael Linov	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 16960

Having a long position in this company, I am basically waiting for everyone to realize what a great value this company really is. Unfortunately, 3dfx stocks seem unaffected by good profits, industry leadership, brand name recognition, or very much else up till now. The company is in a period of transition, trying to capture a share in the huge OEM market, nevertheless, its core business is still viable and should prove very profitable this holiday season, and beyond, banshee is just the icying on the cake, being a gateway to tremendous growth (no pun intended). The way I see it, the company's stock is hurt by the instability brought about by the large amount of short trading. Perhaps the company should consider doing something to wake the market up, and reduce the ever-increasing short volume. A one time (or even regular) dividend payments will eliminate the shorts in one fell swoop, and will immediately appreciate the value of the stock, if the company can afford it. A statement of the company's future product plans might also help. TDFX is simply not known for hype. They keep quiet, and only make announcements in the last minute. Perhaps their new PR firms will do something about this... so far, we haven't heard a bit from them. As for the Sega lawsuit, or other potential short term good news, I think that will only make the stock even less stable, and further increase short speculation.

To: JPB_II who wrote (5907)	7/30/1998 5:26:00 PM
From: Sleeperz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

3DFX needs a design win like the one Nvidia got today. Why did the RIVA 128 3D get the design win while the Banshee a suposedly superior chip did not? Also the Riva 128 3D also beat out RENDITION which Micron (MUEI's parent company) recently bought. NVIDIA's Riva 128 Selected by Micron Electronics Award-Winning 3D Processor To Be Featured in ClientPro and Millenia Line PCs biz.yahoo.com cl >>> The question is what will it take to make a difference and start a run-up? It seems to me at this point it will take something quite extraordinary. Obviously, the company is kicking ass in its core business. Everyone knows this. <<<<

To: JPB_II who wrote (5907)	7/30/1998 10:42:00 PM
From: Joe C.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

JPB II, I know how you feel. My experience in these situations is that the "suprise" rarely if ever comes. The sustained upward move when it does comes is slow and sweet. Looking back on it, its' hard to tell what actually turned it - a rec here, positive press there, etc. My basis is much higher partly because I became a believer a little later in the game (early on I traded it a few times). Looking back on it there were several factors that I completely misjudged: I expected TDFX to stand out from the chip sector crowd given its' dominant position and branding strength. I did not anticipate a major shift in sentiment (IMO unjustified) on the 3D industry. I overestimated the strength of the pc gaming movement in that I thought graphic capabilities would have received wider attention in the general media than it has to date. I ignored my initial reservations about smallcap stocks in general using the excuse that the secondary offering and expected growth would establish a sufficient market cap that would resist excessive volatility and wide price swings. I like to trade small caps - not own them outright. All of these factors will change: The chip industry down turn has reached significant lows and is due for a turn around in the months ahead. Today's laggards eventually become tommorrow's leaders. 3D will be THE growth area for PC sales in the future. Banshee will be successful and TDFX will slowly expand its' dominance to the much larger 2D/3D general purpose market. PC gaming will continue to grow helped by the explosive gowth of the internet. PC multiplayer is a powerful advantage of the pc gaming platform and faster internet access (i.e. cable), and continued growth will only make it more popular. Standalone consoles may be unable to compete against lower cost pc's of the future. Microsofts efforts with 3D Chromeeffects and DirectX will widen the 3D market in the typical slow and deliberate method that they are famous for. Interactive software for business/commmercial usage will adopt 3D to strengthen the message. TDFX making the Russell 2000 was a good first step towards a hopefully higher market cap. As Christmas comes and the other factors take hold, longer term players should begin to park this stock in their portfolios. Initially, the value players will begin to buy who in turn will sell to the growth players once the price has run up. At some point, a couple of million shares short have to be covered. My goal is a pe of 20-25 on earnings of 2 - 2.50 per year. However, if Rampage is as revolutionary as I expect it to be then these numbers may be higher and as Greg Ballard has said "1999 will be the year of TDFX". Joe C.