To: Steve Fancy who wrote (6116 ) 7/30/1998 5:30:00 PM From: EPS Respond to of 22640
Jul/30/98 at 02h42 pm ET Telebr s sale to spark profound changes in market Sao Paulo, 30 - Sao Paulo, 30 - The privatization of the Telebr s System as well as its splitting are seen as generating profound changes in the Brazilian equity markets. The participation of telecommunications companies' shares in the country's major stock market indices began increasing right after former-president Fernando Collor de Mello's election in 1990, to reach 50% at the end of 1992. Since then, Telebr s' liquidity has been attaining levels considered high even by international standards, with its ADRs standing amidst those most traded in Wall Street. However, the company's privatization auction is expected to put an end to such high liquidity, since local stock markets should concentrate on the trading of a group of selected shares, after the loss of its blue chip -- responsible for at least half of the deals in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). Natural candidates to fill in the void left by Telebr s' shares, analysts claim, are those of telecoms deemed most attractive by traders, as well as those of Petrobras, which are benefited by current fundamentals, such as the sector's opening to new partnerships, the breaking of trading barriers, in addition to the prospect -- though not confirmed by the government -- of its privatization in the near future. Analysts cite Telesp (both fixed and cellular) and Embratel as topping the list of the heirs of Telebr s' liquidity. "Investors tend to participate in only one of the three telephony categories -- namely fixed, mobile and long-distance -- into which the Telebr s System will be separated," Lloyds Asset Management's analyst, Fl vio Conde, pondered. Traders interested in the fundamentals of the telecommunications sector usually seek the best option within this specific market, whereas those pursuing high liquidity offered by Telebr s are likely to opt for the best options on offer, in or outside that sector. "In terms of liquidity, Petrobr s is the safest option available," Conde said. Another issue arising amidst market analysts is whether the liquidity offered by the total of these new shares will be equivalent to Telebr s' current turnover. According to Ricardo Almeida, ING Bank's stock manager, the new companies born from Telebr s splitting already have the potential of reaching the same level or even outpacing their mother-company. However, he believes this should only be attained in the long term. He added that investor migration should be gradual, at the same time it should benefit Bovespa futures index, which is expected to receive a large part of Telebr s option deals. (By Liliane Hage and Josu‚ Leonel. Edited by Marcos Viesi)