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To: cirrus who wrote (128)7/30/1998 6:11:00 PM
From: Dave Williams  Respond to of 371
 
Re: Tax rate; 40% was used in 96-97, dropped to 38% in Q198. Perhaps Arthur acquisition/R&D write-off has changed tax rate blend to bump back to 39-40% range. Shouldn't be a big deal, but maybe they've got less "cushion" to work with in future quarters. I didn't hear teleconf.

DSO's to 107 are a negative. Soft international revenues also a concern, as that segment outgrew domestic in past 2 years. If services outpaced licenses, then international licenses would be assumed to be the weakest performing part. Were Asia, Europe, and Latin America components discussed in teleconf? This could provide some insights into license pipeline geographic balance. Check 10-Q if it didn't come up in teleconf.

If apples-apples EPS has grown by 54%, and PE is below 40, current valuation ($23-$25/share) appears undervalued if you have confidence in next couple of Qtrs. Some high EPS expectations ahead....



To: cirrus who wrote (128)7/31/1998 10:16:00 AM
From: cirrus  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 371
 
Well, I blew it. Big time. I heard nothing negative and the stock drops 20%. Obviously I heard what I wanted to hear and missed the nuances of the license situation. There's a lesson in here for me somewhere.