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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jtechkid who wrote (22292)	7/30/1998 6:08:00 PM
From: Quant	Respond to of 70976

To confirm and clarify my post of July 17 (#21924), my expectation was a successful break through 32 resistance. Despite recent earnings pessimism, which I have expressed IMHO as fully discounted into next year, the recovery scenario remains intact, despite the apparent "emotional" arguments made on this thread and "respected" analysts read: (Kurlak, First Call 7/30). Mr. JTechkid, albeit with a trader perspective, you seem the "lone ranger" to capture this argument. And thanks kid for the ideas, by the way. To explain "the danger, this happens quickly" in my post #21924 was my opining that a market breakout and recovery scenario would be so completely unanticipated by the market that share appreciation could escalate quite rapidly, particularly due to large short interest positions increasing in all semi-conductor related shares. "Day trading can be hazardous to your health" was my warning that short sales will magnify the amplitude of a cyclical rebound. Historically they have made valuation measures non-applicable. AMAT and SOX remain in constructive recovery trend as of today's close. I utilize MACD and RSI analysis. see below Forget opinions and "noise" of emotion. The entire semi group, including equipment manufacturers, is poised for huge upside before year end. Now, I wonder what Mr. Kurlak's market makers are doing with all of those shares sold to them...???

To: jtechkid who wrote (22292)	7/30/1998 6:10:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

teri, jacob, aki: I do not mean this as an attack of any sort. I merely would like to see where each of you will invest if you cannot get into AMAT at your prices. Currently, it does not look like you'll get them but we have a ways to go so there is a chance AMAT may breach its lows. If not though, what are others areas you see as more attractive? TIA BK

To: jtechkid who wrote (22292)	7/30/1998 6:14:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

jtechkid, I for one would rather miss the opportunity to catch the bottom than to risk jumping in now. Lets assume today is indeed the bottom and the sector is going to start moving up, I think I will wait for some confirmation at the 39 or over level, with volume and some signs that semi prices and demand have turned positive. There will still be plenty of profit above that level. On the other hand, I prefer to see the new Japanese government show their cards. A few of them had been turned over. Bad debt amount is now estimated at $1 trillion vs the $500-$600 billion figure commonly used before. New MOF is not going to take much action to support the yen. Bridge bank is going to be structured with no intention of allowing bad banks to fail. Within the next few months, we should be able to see their strategy and make a new assessment. Until then, I am willing to forgo opportunity cost in exchange for sleeping at night. Just my 2 cents. Ramsey