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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wayners who wrote (19958)	7/30/1998 6:06:00 PM
From: William Wang	Respond to of 45548

I am not sure about $20 but 3Com is going to re-test its 52 week low in my opinion. It has TOTALLY lost all the momentums today.

To: Wayners who wrote (19958)	7/30/1998 7:05:00 PM
From: joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Wayne, before you start getting yourself all psyched out... I am looking at the daily plots for the last 5 days. That's as far back as Etrade will go for daily plots. I see: 1) 4 out of the last 5 days* are gap ups or highs all in the first 1/2 hour or so. 2) We have touched 25 4 times on the last 4 days. The low has been 24 3/4 (eyeballing it). Today we finished at ~25. 3) I see that a few times we touched 25, there were a few fairly quick bounces off of 25. 4) There is hardly any activity below 25. 5) I would say that in the last several days, volume has risen compared to the previous 5 days (somebody can check this for me). These are signs of a bottom. Now I'm not saying I'm sure it's a bottom, but like you said, "there is slowing momentum". The bottom may be at 23 or 24 for all I know. Maybe there's some super-duper T/A rule yet to be discovered, that says 23.75 is the bottom. OK, fine (William). Maybe the bottom is a little further to go. But, to me I don't yet see a sign of getting to 20 or below. I see what Wayne mentioned earlier...some "consolidation (means bottom is close by) and then a possible reversal and retrace (usually what happens after hitting a bottom)." Usually, when we get to these points, we start getting gap ups. In fact, we frequently get gaps up regardless. Almost all our activity is always in the beginning. I can't prove it, but I personally think that institutions buy early, and then let the "dog eat dog trader action" bring the price down so they can keep getting a nice price at the beginning of the day. That's a constant COMS pattern that I can count on. High volume stock goes up...low volume stock goes down == 90% of the time. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Now, if I were to take the reverse argument and say that some thing is definitely wrong, the tide has turned, we are going to "true dog-land" below 20, here's what I would back it up with: Hopes fade for U.S. second-half profit rebound Reuters, Thursday, July 30, 1998 at 14:53 By Huw Jones NEW YORK, July 30 (Reuters) - Hopes for a rebound in corporate profits in the 1998 second half are beginning to fade as more and more Wall Street analysts trim their profit forecasts and investor worries grow. A clearer profit picture is emerging as the second quarter reporting season draws to a close: U.S. company earnings have been above year-earlier levels, but robust double-digit growth is absent as Asia bites and the U.S. economy slows. First Call and I/B/E/S International, two companies that collate Wall Street forecasts, expect profits for the nation's largest companies to grow by single digits, rather than double digits, in the third quarter as well, little better than in the first half. ... ... ... If I were to guess what's been causing 3Com and the market to go down, it would be lowered expectations on economic growth...this spells itself out in lower earnings estimates. That's why the market has been in turmoil lately - UNTIL TODAY, just when the above expert opinion was given. Is the market telling us that economists are stupid, and that 2nd half of '98 is going to be great? Or are we oversold? blah,blah, blah,..... Personally, given the low interest rates, I think we're right at the point of being oversold.

To: Wayners who wrote (19958)	7/30/1998 7:34:00 PM
From: joe	Respond to of 45548

Wayne, one more thing... If you really want to play it safe, you can immediately sell if you don't see a gap up from the opening, like we saw today. Usually, with no gap ups, we start of where we left off the previous day - so simply sell immediately. Getting the gap down is much rarer with COMS. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it's not as often, and usually, the day before, you have an idea that it's coming...massive selling the last hour...which I don't think we saw today. I'm still debating with myself, how to handle this opening in case it goes 'the other way'.