To: Karl Drobnic who wrote (21413 ) 7/30/1998 8:08:00 PM From: Hawkmoon Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 31646
Hey Karl... I've been having a PM discussion with someone about TAVA and Y2K in general and I just felt I would like to share this response I made to this thread in general. **************************************************** It is obvious that we do approach the impact on Y2K from different perspectives. I live in the DC area, am a member of the WashDCy2k workgroup, and have attended several sub-committee hearings dealing with Y2K. I have various contacts who I meet in my day-to-day travels that are in positions to know about how serious y2k is and the general level of preparedness to dealing with the issue. And frankly, I "DO" believe that mainframes will find themselves close to fully remediated (but not properly tested) by Dec, 1999. However, all of us know that the embedded systems issue is a relative new-comer to the problem and industry is still trying to come to grips with. Yes, there are hypsters and misinformation on both sides of the y2k issue, but even if you discount both extremes, you still find yourself in the middle of an uncomfortable uncertainty come Jan, 2000. And many of these systems will not be fixed by 2000 simply because there is not enough time to ramp up production of replacement systems. So let's face facts. I&A may be a wasted activity, but IT WILL BE NECESSARY to cover management's legal *ss in the litigation sure to follow. For that reason alone, I expect many companies to follow big name clients like Chevron, KO, BMY, Polaroid... etc, to obtain the necessary tools from TAVA. We are just seeing the beginning of the rush and TAVA is basing its earnings prospects on known business expectations. They are not including the likely additional business that will be generated in coming quarters. And when the results of 2000 are finally displayed, companies will have to pick up the pieces and will quite likely decide to re-engineer their operations to maximize productivity and efficiency. They will spend money on complete renovations that they could not have justified previously. And TAVA will be extremely well positioned to participate in this activity. But then again, you probably disagree that y2k will be as severe as stated by Yardeni. I have met the guy and he privately states that he is being conservative. And evidence of European and Asian unpreparedness will devastate our "bull market" like a collapsing house of cards. (look at current earnings so see this impact already) So my question is, why aren't you all out there shorting the companies that aren't coming clean on their y2k exposure and the resultant, likely negative impact on their earnings, rather than toying with a company that will show increasing earnings in an increasingly unfriendly economic environment?? Not disclosing y2k vulnerabilities over concerns about litigation is where the REAL FRAUD is being perpetrated. Regards, Ron