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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (22302)	7/30/1998 9:17:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

The Money Supply (M3) <<"Monetary growth." I have research that says the monetary base growth rate is slowing and may have peaked a couple of months ago. This report is dated June 12, 1998, so we need to make sure that nothing has changed since then.>> The St. Louis Federal Reserve has consistently measured the broadest measure of money, as defined by M3, as growing at approximately 10% for at least the past year now. It is this excess money supply that has kept the economy and the equity markets strong.

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (22302)	7/30/1998 10:02:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 70976

A wrote a very long post and my browser crashed...geeeez. I'll be shorter. 1.It does help to have held so long that small corrections feel irrelevant. But, Teri, I still am a buyer, and things that I plan on investing in frequently drop after I buy. Most posters aren't looking out far enough and think market movement is meaningful. Market movements put me into action when foolish things are occurring; I don't derive some hocus pocus "meaning" from changing stock quotes. Dropping prices are great for me, provided I have the ability to buy more, and more, and tolerate lower than expected prices. For example, I bought more psft and grn yesterday. PSFT is really in range, grn is screwed up because of the wait for the brk merger. I hope they both go lower. I will be waiting for years unless fundamentals change. Saphy may hurt psft, but much of this is in the price already. I may be wrong about psft but I think I will get a 67% move within 18 months. GRN/ BRK is a no brainer. This merger is going to put assets under Buffett's control that are mind bending...book will be 55 billion dollars! 2. I fluctuate my level of margin significantly 2-4x per year, in an attempt to maximize my return. It then becomes a mental challenge to not confuse short term positions with long term investments. The very long term issue is that a major break is unlikely to occur without rising rates, rising inflation, slowing monetary growth, recession, war, changing demographics, or a weakening of the absolute global dominance of the U.S. It won't be gut feeling that makes me exit. It will be a change in fundamentals. 3.I agree that you are on target with the semi's. I haven't changed my position. I believe the crack will occur yet, possibly with the next nas 10% pullback.( Before Nov.) 4. Hmmmm, I see different numbers on this. Again, I said the fed will raise, but they continue to prime the pump. This is appropriate manipulation of the masses. Machiavellian, I know. 5. <VBG> I worry all day, and I have told you to scare me as much as you can. I am curently wearing a parachute. Just in case. 6. I lightened up in mid April, as at least you know, as a result of the 2 dumbest people I know buying Pfizer and MSFT. The gal who bought MSFT looks a lot smarter now. Remember that I am simply pointing out that using Greenspan and Buffett as reasons to panic is incorrect since the money supply has been expanding rapidly, and Buffett is making his biggest deals ever.(even on a percentage basis) I do think we will have a big pullback before the end of the year, so I may look silly to those with short attention spans. Long as my account is expanding rapidly, I will be happy.

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (22302)	7/30/1998 10:19:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Teri, you said >>(5) I would say it's a very good bet there were people who felt positively there was nothing to worry about in 1929, the economy looked good, the outlook was bright and stocks were overpriced.<< Not that comparison to 1929 again, please. It is not relevant. There are things to worry about, of course. I don't think there ever was a time when there was no worry. >>(6) When the shoe-shine person is giving you his stock picks, it's a sign that darn near everybody's money is in this market already. So, after the foreigners get finished throwing their money into "safe havens", what will be the fuel for this market?<< I haven't seen a shoe-shine boy lately but can think of one source for new money: 401k plans. Let me invent some numbers. 50 million people have 401k plans. Their average salary is $40,000 per year. 8% of the salary goes into the plan. That comes to $160 billion a year. I have no idea whether that is enough. Often the employer kicks in $$$ also. Gottfried