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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taby who wrote (22307)	7/30/1998 9:54:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 70976

Taby, I totally agree with the fact that AMAT and other equally deserving companies in this sector will recover and soar to previous highs one of these years. Looking through my notes, I think the biggest difference this time is, like Carl said, the macroeconomic issues. The likes of James Morgan and the RS love vest are most likely using semi, DRAM supply and demand, as well as cycle of new technology to base their forecast upon. Five of the six largest chip producers are in Korea and Japan. Don't know how many are in Taiwan but I do know Asia was almost 50% of AMAT's business. If the yen goes down, the won is in deep trouble. I don't have time to look it up from there is a huge amount of short term debt in Korea requiring refinancing in less than 12 months. There just may not be enough money for them to move into the next cycle. Can US and Europe fill in the gap? Place your bets. Ramsey