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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (15071)	7/30/1998 9:51:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116756

Hi Bobby, everything is just going -g-, hopefully better soon. Thanks for asking. Smart guys are buying the dip. IMHO this is like buying (probably 10x better) equities at the bottom in 1982. This is an opportunity of a lifetime to get in on the bottom of an 18 year bear market, a historic turning point in history - - -financial, political and social. Let's make the best of it. bb

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (15071)	7/30/1998 11:17:00 PM
From: CIMA	Respond to of 116756

Global Intelligence Update Red Alert July 31, 1998 Iranian-Saudi Relations Peak with Missile Offer We have been chronicling the growing rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran since before the extended visit of former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani to the kingdom in February. That visit, taking place in the wake of the collapse of what appeared to be a tacit Iranian-U.S. plan for the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the dismemberment of Iraq, sparked a rapid, dramatic improvement in relations between Tehran and Riyadh. With the U.S. losing credibility in the region due to its weak and vacillating policies on Iraq and Israel, we wrote that "Iran is now busily spinning its own web, trying to replace the United States as Saudi Arabia's guarantor" (http://www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/region/stories/022598.html). Just how far Iranian-Saudi relations have come in half a year was demonstrated in a July 29 interview with Iran's Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Mohammad Reza Nouri, in the London-based newspaper "Al-Hayat." Nuri told the newspaper that "Iran's missile capabilities are at the disposal of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia." He continued "We believe that Iran's power is the kingdom's power, and the kingdom's power is Iran's power. Our relations with Saudi Arabia have reached a historical stage where we are complementing one another, and if we have a missile or non-missile capability, it is at the kingdom's disposal." Saudi Arabia has yet to respond publicly to Nuri's comments. Nuri rejected concerns raised in the U.S. and European press that Iran's new Shahab-3 missile threatens Saudi Arabia, saying "They are not aware of the status of relations between us and the kingdom, which have entered a new stage." Kuwait, also rapidly growing close to Iran, has already announced that it does not consider Iran's new missile to be a threat to the region. Nuri went on to praise the expected visit of Saudi Prince Sultan to Tehran. The ambassador reported that Iranian President Mohammad Khatami had told Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah that "Iran is ready to receive Prince Sultan as a dear guest." Prince Sultan, Saudi Arabia's Second Deputy Prime Minister, Defense Minister, and Aviation Minister, and his son Prince Bandar, have traditionally been Washington's top supporters in Riyadh. Prince Sultan was suspected of inciting insults against Rafasanjani, during the Iranian envoy's visit to Mecca and Medina. As far as we have been able to ascertain, despite Nuri's claim that he expects Prince Sultan's visit before the end of the year, Prince Sultan has not yet responded to the official Iranian invitation. Speaking before a congressional committee on Wednesday, July 29, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Martin Indyk effectively declared the end of the U.S.'s "dual containment" policy for Iraq and Iran. Indyk declared the U.S.'s renewed commitment to the containment of Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, but he defined the new U.S. policy toward Iran as being closer to the European policy of "critical dialogue." The U.S. will continue to try to block Iran's acquisition of weapons of mass destruction, but now will also attempt to encourage and support moderate elements in the Iranian government. This marks the latest step in Washington's campaign for rapprochement with Tehran, which accelerated following public appeals to Tehran from President Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in June (http://www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/region/stories/062298.html). Saudi Arabia is now clearly in Iran's camp, and it appears as though the U.S. is once again open to Iran as well. A friendly visit of Prince Sultan to Tehran would confirm this. The loser in this relationship is Iraq, which can not be amused by Nuri's comments on Iranian-Saudi military cooperation. Following the failure of the U.S. to take action against Iraq in February, Iran launched an initiative aimed at building a NATO-style Arab-Persian regional military alliance. At the time, the Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran declared "If the regional countries had enjoyed a constructive consensus about controlling the Iraqi regime's irrational behavior, surely today they would have been immune from America's tension- inducing presence in the region." That initiative has been taken up by Syria, which has already won Egypt over to the idea (http://www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/region/stories/062498.html). We have been arguing for nearly six months that a regional consensus is building in the Middle East for combined action against Iraq. This evolution has been led by Iran, which has taken advantage of Washington's policy vacillation and the debilitating economic impact of low crude oil prices to break out of its isolation and win allies among former supporters of the U.S. Washington has now stated publicly that Saddam Hussein must go, but that the U.S. is open to improved relations with Iran. Iran has now stated that its military is at the disposal of its Arab allies -- they have but to say the word. Saddam must be twitching. _______________________________________________ To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at stratfor.com, or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to alert@stratfor.com ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR Systems, Inc. 3301 Northland Drive, Suite 500 Austin, TX 78731-4939 Phone: 512-454-3626 Fax: 512-454-1614 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com