To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (5046 ) 7/31/1998 11:07:00 AM From: Bhag Karamchandani Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6136
"to trade largely on the merits of science, business plans, and the markets that they address." Let us discuss this a bit: in the biotech sector,none of these factors guarantee commercial success, to the degree they do in other sectors. I believe that investing in biotechs, essentially on the basis of "good science", is on the decline; "business plans" can be as "dressed up" as one wants ; "markets they address" -as in the case of AIDS attract a lot of duplicate or overlapping therapies, often confusing to investors. Conclusion: Biotechnology ventures, increasingly like technology companies, even when they have a successful product, face product obsolescence ( e.,g. Crixivan). In the case of technology companies, there is, at least, the potential to upgrade one's product. Barring exceptions this is not the case for drug companies. The most they can do is try and develop new drugs, which hopefully are an improvement over existing ones, usually at enormous costs with erratic predictability for success. The one major plus biotechs have going for them is that in the absence of cures, diabetes, Aids, Cancers, and other conditions will, in the near term, become chronically treatable conditions requiring 'combo' therapies. AGPH has been helped by a block buster drug for what, so far, remains a chronic condition. Its strategic plans for licensing promising technologies certainly seems to make sense. Time and results will tell. (As an aside, I am intrigued by the prospects of IMNR's stand alone PIII trials in Thailand(?) as a therapeutic vaccine) However,I continue to believe that what AGPH needs to deliver to the longs, promising results from AG3340. Otherwise it would mean two strikes against the 'merits of their science'. In fairness to AGPH they are not the only one with prospects of strike outs- but this happens the thread to discuss AGPH prospects. So far, very little is known, except for the few words, posted on this thread, about how AG 3340 is of better design (science) than Mrimastat.Time will tell. Good Luck.