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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Bogdanoff who wrote (12183)	7/31/1998 11:53:00 AM
From: Marconi	Respond to of 18691

Hello Mr. Bogdanoff: You are narrowly correct about 'promises'. NVX did not directly state they promise approval on a specific date--I agree, that would be out of bounds. However, they repeatedly reported they were seeking approval, and to me seemed to strongly imply they expected to get it, and this occurred several times over several years--seems to me for all their self-acclaimed expertise, they did not understand what a sufficient body of data is for an application--hence the rounds of effort, which is costly compared to doing it sufficiently first time (a basic strategy for any medical start-up). I don't think they were economizing, because they had the cash at the time to do it correctly. The lack was in the data, and, without checking, I am under the impression they narrowed their claims over time to get it past the FDA. This forum is to raise questions. I view NVX managements elaborated story lines as largely obfuscating the real issues. Regarding the market, it will not be the first story stock to relate sad implications that their customers are just not up to speed and don't understand they need the product. NVX has serious potential competitors if they bird dog there may be a niche out there. I remain unimpressed by NVX management and science. I think there is much better and timely R&D to be found in vaccines elsewhere -- and that is a lot of elsewhere, with real pockets, deliberate market entries, and, of course, also being going concerns. NVX remains a potential short via proxy by options. I checked options pricing yesterday and it did not look sufficiently attractive to enter a position. But it is on my watch. I hope you find profits in NVX, it is a modestly volatile stock. For me, I expect down to continue to be the trend of the future. Best regards, m