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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: schadenfreude who wrote (12187)	7/31/1998 12:15:00 AM
From: B Tate	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Barb Roger et. al Does this post remind us of other "quality" stocks? Message 5364660 Rgds bt

To: schadenfreude who wrote (12187)	7/31/1998 1:01:00 PM
From: Marconi	Respond to of 18691

Hello Otaku: I'm sorry, I don't remember when NVX came to mind-it was years ago--could have been a trade rag like GEN(Genetic Engineering News) or during some review about various immunological mechanisms to challenges. GEN was published by a smart and well-connected lady out of New York--it is a pretty decent trade rag. Unfortunately I do not keep abreast of it now. Early 90's, I used to watch some of the biotech outfits--the initial story, the funding, the story line, and nearly always the non-significant clinical results. Unless the first round of clinicals are done rigorously and show statistically significant results, these startups usually fail. Retrospective studies for results, followed by a new study to confirm, are hall marks of a technology in trouble. There is no substitute for good scientific practices consistent with acceptable medical science standards up front. NVX seems to be able to dig up enough money to run the next leg. I have not been watching their cash closely, but generally it has been relatively small for the weight of competitors that could lock horns with them. At this point, I would like to see a rip-snorting, carefree buying frenzy in the market in general--throwing the presently available cash sloshing around domestically at the market, accompanied by a move to the high teens with NVX--and some aging with the high teens move--then the puts may become an attractive short proxy. Mostly, NVX has been dull, but it should be effective for 2 -5 points off rises. The fundamental lack of value keeps me from trying to trade for rises. I try to go with the trend along the lines of common business sense as a going concern as the dominant flavor to my positions, mostly short now. Best regards, m