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Non-Tech : Cendant Corporation (NYSE:CD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: VALUESPEC who wrote (1400)7/31/1998 11:01:00 AM
From: ayn rand  Respond to of 3627
 
Dow Jones Online News, Friday, July 31, 1998 at 01:09

By Joann S. Lublin and Emily Nelson,
Staff Reporters of The Wall Street Journal

In the wake of his worst business decision ever, Henry R. Silverman is focusing on how to pick up the pieces. During a lengthy interview yesterday, the 57-year-old chairman and chief executive of deeply troubled Cendant Corp. said, "It's going to take years to restore credibility. But one has no choice in these matters."

The once highflying deal maker, though looking gaunt and tired, isn't done dealing. Mr. Silverman said he considered unraveling the $14 billion merger of his HFS Inc. with CUC International Inc. that formed Cendant last December, but decided such an option appeared too cumbersome. Instead, he said he is considering selling software and publishing businesses that were part of CUC and possibly selling part of an interactive network in a public offering.Cendant, based in Parsippany, N.J., has said that over three years,CUC booked roughly $500 million in fake revenue and pretax income and fudged another $200 million through improper accounting maneuvers.Arthur Andersen LLP, hired by Cendant directors to conduct an independent audit, told the board this week that 61% of 1997 net income reported by CUC was nonexistent, informed individuals say.Cendant has received unsolicited proposals for three former CUC businesses, Mr. Silverman said. The proposed transactions could bring it proceeds of about $2 billion.

One proposal is for Cendant Software, which could be sold outright or sold to the public. The unit, which has suffered management turnover,includes Sierra On-Line Inc. and Davidson & Associates Inc. and has about $650 million in annual revenue. Hebdo Mag International, whose magazines carry only classified advertising, has received an offer from current management to buy the company.Also, to take advantage of the exuberant market for Internet stocks,Cendant is contemplating selling to the public or an investor group 20% to 40% of its interactive membership clubs, Mr. Silverman said.Mr. Silverman said he met with a number of major customers this week to assure them that "anybody who might have been involved with the fraud is now out of the company." The crisis at Cendant has taken a significant toll on Mr. Silverman. He has lost weight, his hair has thinned, and he said he sleeps just four to five hours a night. He said he turned to a psychiatrist to help him deal with his stress. He said the psychiatrist prescribed daily workouts after hearing the executive declare: "I'm consumed with blind rage." Seated at a round conference table in his dark-paneled Manhattan office, Mr. Silverman outlined ways that he hopes to restore confidence. He said he plans to add more outsiders to the board's executive committee.To reduce the huge turnover at CUC's core membership clubs -- about 10 million of the 17 million new members each year drop out a year later -- the company will try to target customers better, he said. Mr. Silverman also said Cendant directors "are going to reconstitute the audit committee" once it finishes investigating the accounting fraud in late August. Frederick Green, the panel chairman and a developer of two golf courses with Mr. Forbes, has agreed to step down at that time.Leonard Schutzman, a former PepsiCo Inc. treasurer who headed HFS' audit committee, is expected to succeed Mr. Green.

Mr. Silverman portrays himself as a victim of fraud, but he said in the interview that he told a special board meeting this week that he "regretted the merger, and I was willing to take accountability for it." Among other things, he offered to give up his salary, bonus, stock options -- even his job. The offer changed the course of the intense board meeting, said Robert Kunisch, a director who runs a Cendant subsidiary. "A lot of what we're doing is his vision. The last thing you want is to have him walk out," he said. Instead, Cendant directors accepted the resignation of Cendant Chairman Walter Forbes, who had founded and led CUC. Eight other board members tied to CUC, besides Mr. Green, agreed to quit, too.

Through a spokeswoman, Mr. Forbes declined to comment.Now, Mr. Silverman said, all the CUC accounting and budgeting is under centralized accounting management and is being automated. Though a computer-oriented concern, CUC often switched an acquired business's automated accounting system to its manual one, he said.

Through expansion of current businesses, Mr. Silverman said, the company can continue to grow 20% a year. He indicated that Cendant will report net income of 21 cents a share for the second quarter, in line with some analysts' estimates. It expects to report its earnings around Aug. 13.



To: VALUESPEC who wrote (1400)7/31/1998 11:05:00 AM
From: Roy F  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3627
 
While the activity this morning is a relief, typically, support becomes resistance. If that is the case here, resistance would be in the 18-18.5 area. A break through 19 +/- would be a very positive sign, IMO.

Regards,

Roy



To: VALUESPEC who wrote (1400)8/4/1998 2:39:00 AM
From: Apakhabar  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3627
 
Spec,

Your trading soap opera is ridiculous. Your post 7/31 where you write "Yes!!!!!! CD price holds [at 18] despite missing consensus... is anyone as happy as I am?" is a classic fool's paradise. It wouldn't hurt you to quit trading for a month. You're just gambling, and that doesn't add much to the thread. A couple months ago your reportage, though overly bullish in hindsight, was at least punctuated by some facts. Now it's just the overly emotional gushing of the compulsive ticker-watcher. I believe you mean well. But your writing as well as your investing philosophy needs discipline. And I assure you, while some here may believe your claims of huge YTD returns, nobody cares, and such claims do not bolster your arguments.

To all,

Two of the three things I, a prospective buyer of CD, was looking for to be resolved have been, insofar as Forbes and his cronies are gone and the audit seems to have turned up no more bad news. On the other hand, missing the estimate doesn't help at all. We're supposed to want to buy in because Silverman is promising over 20% growth (a decent but not awe-inspiring rate, especially when compared to the Ciscos and Microsofts of the market) but here they are right off the bat missing the number. The P/E is over one hundred. There is talk of selling assets to raise cash, which means that Cendant now is saddled with under-performing entities. Cendant is bargaining from a position of weakness, not strength. That is why the CEO of ABI is willing to discuss and possibly revise the structure of the merger.

What might be a positive? The volume. It has not been terribly high. It's lower than average, although if you back out a few huge-volume days it's about average. That tells me that people aren't rushing to get out. Instead, sellers seem to understand this stock isn't going to bounce up into the 20s very soon. The bounce that Street.com's Cramer was hoping for when Forbes got the boot was not five points, it was about two points, which has since been given back. The fact that all of us must now accept, for the short term, is there are NO BUYERS for this stock at $19 share.

On the other hand, will we have any sellers at $15? I am no bottom-calling guru, but at this time, 15 would seem to be the sort of price where if you're long you may as well hold. Or if you believe in the company and aren't risking a margin call, you might take an introductory position. I'm not saying that 15 from here on is the bottom, only that there is a lot of resistance there, which provides a measure of safety. IMO the stock will trade between 15 and 18-plus, following the direction of the overall market, until a new and significant announcement.

I might buy a little CD at 15, but I'll have to look at other stocks I follow that have traded down during this slide. Cendant is not the only stock for sale, after all.

Good luck everybody-- including our compulsive friend.