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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Graeme Smith who wrote (12206)	7/31/1998 12:25:00 PM
From: tdl4138	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

To Anyone: Just got done reading the 10k and 10Q for ONHN...unbelievable.. They're burning cash quicker than they can sell convertible debentures...Does anyone have any info on the last $5mm they "sold" in April...and if its floorless? Can't seem to find the specifics of the deal and would greatly appreciate some help. Thanks in advance. Dave

To: Graeme Smith who wrote (12206)	7/31/1998 2:30:00 PM
From: Bob Trocchi	Respond to of 18691

Graheme. I read of your "public" portfolio somewhere and had already book marked it. Good Idea. I an not a finance person and I am sure there many more sophisticated ways to analyze a stock however I looked at ALYD in the following manner. -- Current earnings/sh. (just reported.) 0.16/sh. -- # of shares 18 m (slightly rounded up for ease of use. -- CFO reports that he expects double digit growth for next 6 q's I simply used a 50% Q over Q growth rate for the next 3Q's giving 0.16 (current) and 0.24, 0.36, 0.54 which equals $1.30 for a 4Q total. I believe that 50% Q over Q will not be possible. -- This would translate to 1.30/share earnings or total earnings of 18*1.3 or $23.4M -- This would result in a market cap (at current price) to trailing earnings ratio of 234/23.4 or 10:1 --That seems to high for a company that beyond the next 3 Q's will not IMO be able to continue double digit growth. I therefore agree that they will have a couple of good q's and hopefully their stock price will appreciate and make it a real good longer term short. It is now on my watch list. Bob T.