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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: growthvalue who wrote (23755)	7/31/1998 1:43:00 PM
From: Machaon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 32384

First, thanks for your interesting note. << This supposed "validation of technology" is nonsense and it's not going to move the stock. >> So, your point is that FDA approval of a drug is normally going to be a non event to the market. Interesting point! And yet, I've seen biotech stocks make major moves up after the FDA approves a drug. On the other hand, the valuation of a biotech is very complex, and I doubt that anyone really has the handle on it. In valuating a biotech company you must take into consideration the companies science, quality of their partnerships, quality of their pipeline, cash on hand, funding available, dilution prospects, competition, future revenue predictions, market sentiment, etc.......... << The market doesn't care HOW it works, the market wants to know that it DOES work and is going to sell. That's why the market doesn't care about the quality of LGND's science (this is not to say that it is not important). >> That's why FDA approval is so important. After approval you've achieved the "does work" part of the equation. Now the market will calculate the "is going to sell" into the price of the stock. However, how many times have we seen market mavens totally wrong about the market. The biotech sector can be as explosively up as it does down. Unfortunately, the clinical stage biotechs have been taking it on the chin for quite a while. Can we blame the market? When people are making fortunes in market index funds, why play the high risk biotech sector. << LGND needs statistically significant late-phase results in type II diabetes and/or the market has to believe that Targretin oral has the potential to be a Gemzar or even a Taxol (which I think it does). But that may not be soon. >> Hmmmmm!? Speaking of that, I wonder when we can expect results from Ligand's Targretin Phase II trials for Type II diabetes? The trials were begun in March 1997. That's almost 1 1/2 years ago. Good luck, Bob