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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clint E. who wrote (17414)	7/31/1998 4:15:00 PM
From: space cadet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68529

Hi Clint, I've been out of the market 100% for the past couple of days. I agree that we should head down, certainly by Oct. However, something tells me that this fall might be a little rougher than we are used to the past few years. For the Nasdaq and hi-techs I don't think it will be a 5-8% correction. At least twice that, and maybe 20-25% even. I see a lot of top type behavior. Some examples, someone close to me just made a fast million in two years on one NYC apartment, p/e's on dell, msft, etc are higher than they've ever been and their earnings growth is slowing down, not speeding up, the nosebleed internet sector, the insane ipo game, the fact that foreigners like the Japanese are investing bigtime in our markets, etc, etc. I'm probably going to watch from the sidelines for a couple of months now, but if I see some great opportunities I will get involved, but probably only in a small way. After the fall correction/crash there should be some great looking stocks to invest all this cash I'm sitting on. I also will be looking for some shorts and puts now, but I'm not too good playing the downside so I'm going to start small and be cautious. I thought a correction wouldn't happen until the small caps got going but looks like the bear started a little earlier than expected this year. As always, I'm playing it by ear but things have gone much too far on the upside so maybe for once they will go too far on the downside. I think the msft trial especially could rattle the tech sector, and possibly even crash it. So I guess I'm a little more negative than you for the fall. Having made a lot more money than I expected it's probably natural that I'm turning a little more conservative and I want a really great opportunity (like msft was at 85 a few months ago) before I put back my not hard earned money into the market.