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Gold/Mining/Energy : Harken Energy Corporation (HEC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rod Copeland who wrote (3320)	8/11/1998 2:50:00 PM
From: oilstks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5504

Guerillas in Colombia; an Op/Ed by Chuck Strain In the face of the decline in stock prices for the oil industry companies in Colombia, and the rebel attacks on Monday that killed 42 people, we have received renewed inquiries concerning the rebels in Colombia and the potential impact on the companies that we follow. Geography is the most important factor in considering our opinions. The Magdalena River valley, which lies between the central and eastern mountain ranges, is one of the most established areas in the country as the site of early agricultural development and the location of oil exploration and production since 1916. The Middle Magdalena Valley is the hot new exploration region in Colombia. Within 100 miles of Bogota, this is the portion of the country under federal government control. This does not mean that guerilla attacks and activities are unknown here, but they are usually minor and quickly controlled. When several hundred thousand production barrels per day are established from the big discoveries of Seven Seas and Harken in the Magdalena Valley, interest from the guerillas could increase. However, we do not anticipate that the rebel activity will have significant economic impact on these companies. The rebel strongholds are in the remote countryside, particularly in the jungle and areas where drug cartels have become firmly established. Monday's attacks were located in the outlying areas of the country. Unfortunately, one of the largest oil fields in the country at present, Cano Limon, is located in a remote area in the northeast and both the field and its pipeline, which traverses remote country, have been subject to a number of attacks. The other oil industry operations that are almost totally at the mercy of the guerillas are located in the very southern edge of the country in the Puntamayo Basin. The rebel attacks on Monday, appear to us to be some sort of gruesome farewell to President Samper with whom the rebels have refused to negotiate. The newly elected President, Pastrana, takes office on Friday and has already had preliminary peace talks with the two largest rebel groups. It appears that Pastrana may be able to make progress in resolving the issues with the rebels. An overnight solution to the many fundamental social and economic issues that exist in Colombia is not realistic, but significant progress may be possible. Bottom line: We do not expect rebel activities to make operations of any of the Colombian companies that we follow uneconomic. Read this and other wbn.com Op/Ed pieces on the wbn.com Op/Ed Page.