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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (1759)	7/31/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: DenverTechie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Yes, the DSLAM area is complicated. I am still thinking about the question Frank C. posted earlier. Frank! I'm working on it. Great question, not so easy answer. As to the Ascend speculation...the release is not so clear as to what they do. The statement in the release "Stratus Computer makes computers used to run phone switching systems" makes it sound like they make circuit switches or programmables. That is not the case. Stratus makes fault tolerant systems that are used to create what are known as "Operations Support Systems" (OSS for short). Bell companies (and others) have many support systems that are based on dedicated function, legacy computer systems. One system per function is the norm. Want to provision a special service circuit? Use a system called SARTS (Switched Access Remote Test System). The new paradigm is to have a single, centralized database that is stored on one big super fault tolerant computer like a Stratus. This market is in big flux and there are several companies trying to make inroads into it, so there is a lot of uncertainty as to the future of a company like Stratus in this market. Ascend may be looking to them for the OSS that will support the next generation broadband IP based networks that will be built. It gives them the support component of the integrated voice/data networks based on IP standards. The hit on the stock could be due to how much they pay (Stratus has been looking for a suitor for a while I understand) and the competitiveness of the OSS market. Or merely that analysts believe that Ascend is venturing into a company that is not in Ascend's core competency range and will have difficulty integrating them and managing an unknown area of technology. Or a combination of the above. All speculation on my part of course, but knowing what Ascend does vs. what Stratus does may lend some insight.

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (1759)	10/20/1998 3:55:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Thread, I had to go a long way back to the last time we discussed Ascend (I linked to it via this response). It was concerning the Stratus deal. Ascend sure is a hard company to invest in. You can read so many articles (I read two yesterday) about how they are PERFECTLY positioned to build the new, "networks of tomorrow." Then someone comes out with an article like the one below, and the stock gets smashed for weeks, maybe months. I have no idea what to make of Ascend?? I thought the SS7 deal with Stratus was a smart move. The Cascade purchase, ultimately turned out to be a fantastic move but ASND got smashed after that one too. Wonder why so many analysts like to tear apart Ascend. Only thing I can figure is they buy on the dips. Analysts sure can move Ascend around. You can still buy Ascend today, for what you could have bought it for almost 3 years ago. What a frustrating data networker to have an investment in. Does anyone have an opinion of Ascend's products they would like to share? Here's what they do and make: Products And Services --------------------- 1997 Sales / % of total Access switching / 52 Core systems /35 Enterprise access / 9 Other / 4 Products -------- Multimedia (Multiband family) Network access Network management (Navis family) Network security (SecureConnect family) Remote access (Pipeline family) RoutersSwitches Virtual private network (MAX family) Thanks, MikeM(From Florida) _________________________ ALAMEDA, Calif. -- Ascend Communications' stock fell 10 percent Tuesday morning after analysts expressed concern about third-quarter earnings and the company's future competitiveness. ascend's (ASND) third-quarter income was $66.1 million, or 32 cents a share, vs. year-ago profits of $40.1 million, or 20 cents a share. Ascend said third-quarter sales rose 37 percent to $370.3 million from $270.4 million in the third-quarter of 1997. But several analysts downgraded the shares, expressing concern about the company's future. Warburg Dillon Read analyst Nikos Theodosopoulos lowered his rating to "hold" from "buy," saying the company needs design wins overseas in order to meet 1999 estimates. Theodosopoulos also expects reduced margins going forward as the company integrates its Stratus Computer acquisition. A 3-percent sequential decline in its core switching revenue also concerned investors. The company attributed the decrease to an estimated $15 million order delay. Analysts had expected revenue growth of about 20 percent during the quarter. A charge of $8.7 million for write downs on loans to competitive local exchange carrier customers also drew a negative response. Ascend has been providing financing of capital equipment purchases to emerging carriers, triggering concerns about exposure to risk. BancBoston Robertson Stephens analyst Paul Johnson wrote in a research note Tuesday morning that the loans should be included in the quarter's financial performance as a cost of doing business. "The net result, in our opinion, is that earnings were 30 cents per share, not the 32 cents reported," Johnson said. Ascend told analysts it expects to extend more loans in the current quarter. Citing the company's declining return on investment capital, Johnson said, "In light of the increased level of competition in the market, we suspect that we may never see the company's historical performance achieved again." Shares fell 4 11/16 to 43 3/16. But looking ahead to the end of 1998 and into 1999, Ascend expects revenue strength in its North American and European service provider markets. Ascend said in a statement it's still "optimistic" that it will stay one of the "leading suppliers to service providers worldwide." The company also said it is "well positioned to deliver the integrated solutions network service providers are demanding today."