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To: William Wang who wrote (20027)7/31/1998 5:49:00 PM
From: joe  Respond to of 45548
 


I'll take a look this weekend at the FX situation,
but I don't see it as the end of the world anymore.

Yen will probably hit 150-160 in the next month or so.
China will most probably not devalue. Japan will make
some changes. They are slow, but when they have to, they
come up with something. E.Asia will probably have to
sell some business, real estate, natural resources,
whatever...then E.Asia will get its act together. Nobody
will lend them $$ anymore. It's time they started
opening up their businesses to US expertise is the way
I look at it. When it starts happening with Japanese
financials, imo, then we will start seeing Japan
turning around.

Europe looking good. Telebras sale was a great thing
yesterday. Proves that Latin America is able to provide
some world growth.

From the few things that I've heard so far about
Miyazawa, he sounds good. Letting the $/Yen go to true
value is a good idea, but I'm still thinking some more
about it.

Also, US has had time to adjust to E.Asia problems, so
US isn't effected as much as it would have 6 months
ago - jmo.



To: William Wang who wrote (20027)8/1/1998 12:09:00 PM
From: The Insider  Respond to of 45548
 
WW: The yen has been dropping against the $$ for several years now. Indeed, you can track the current phase of this bull market with the the yen's decline. So, the probability that the "market" (there are many markets) is "tanking" because the dollar is gaining strength is speculative at best. A better reason is that demand for US equity is slowing. If so, that could last a week, a month, etc..
Profit taking and redemptions seem more probable a cause.
As for COMS, ??????????