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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (5402)	7/31/1998 10:44:00 PM
From: Rocketman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9719

<<<<<Nobody is interested in the platform stories any longer. INCY..... databases are headed toward being a commodity business.>>>>> What fun is it to make predictions about a profitable biotech, when you can make wild predictions about those future homerun kings? I don't buy it. The Intellectual Property protection on the databases presents a pretty formidable entry barrier. While I agree that the dbases are "headed toward being a commodity business" I don't see them arriving there for a long long time, like when the patents expire in 20 years. I predict that most proprietary pharmaceutical drugs on the market are headed toward being commodities, when the patents expire and the generics take over. Not a very tough prediction to make. We are also all headed towards death, but some of us will take a while to get there, nonetheless we are all headed there. <<<<Perkin Elmer.... keep an eye on it, will be the "800 pound gorilla". (Freudenthal)>>>> Gorillas only range from 200 - 400 pounds in the wild. There is an instance recorded of a 750 pound Gorilla in captivity, but he was "very obese". Thus an 800 pound Gorilla would be incredibly fat and bloated and not able to move very fast or for very long, kind of like an 800 pound person. So, let's see how PKN fits that description. They've been a fancy fat bloated East Coast company with a very nice campus, who nickel dimed ABI's West Coast cubicle dwellers after they bought them (no one had offices at ABI, they had huge expanses of cubicles, in rooms that sounded like zoos). They botched the Hubble Telescope Mirror too (which of course they didn't think was their fault). Oh and a few years late, they decide they want to be a genomics company. Oh and a few years late, they decide they want to be a capillary electrophoresis company. PKN seems to always be playing catch up. Also, historically, ABI was terrible at planning and execution....aka their Vacaville facility, which they spent millions getting part way built before changing there minds and abandoning it. I had a friend who was an engineer for them then, he said that if he went to work and did absolutely nothing that no one would ever notice, and that the place was full of deadwood. He couldn't stand it and had to leave for more productive environs. So I guess not moving fast fits them too. Yep, I have to agree, an 800 pound Gorilla, that pretty much describes Perkin Elmer. But, I certainly wouldn't take it as a compliment. Now, INCY is more like a Bruce Lee. Small, wiry and fast as lightning. Bruce could kick the crap out of an obese Gorilla, the ape wouldn't stand a chance. By the way, who are Freudenthal and Von Emster???? Now, if platforms are out, what is in? The way the markets have been lately, it doesn't seem like anything to do with biotech. Rman PS: I've got parrots and 4 and 7 year old kids, quiet weekends are NEVER in the cards for me, at least not for another 15 years or so. The only time it is quiet here is when the kids are in school.