Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fabeyes who wrote (36754)	8/1/1998 3:59:00 AM
From: Dr. Evil	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 53903

In reviewing the analysis of the fundamentals of MU while in search of reasons for it's stock price resilience in the face of poor market conditions, one can be led to scratch their evil little heads for hours on end. Perhaps there are larger issues, beyond the apparent supply and demand relationship, that impact the stock price? Clearly, the 'Asian Crisis' could have an impact, albeit a negative one. But there is another Asian crisis, one that is not discussed daily on CNBC. This crisis lies just to the north of the the 38th parallel(if my evil memory serves me! ). I'm referring, of course, to North Korea. Anyone who has spent time in Korea, North or South, realizes that Korea, will be a whole nation again. The only remaining questions are the how and when of the re-unification. Currently, the North Korean economy is a shambles. There are a good many starving people. This is fact. In late 1997, South Korea was lobbying heavily in support of North Korea's admittance into the IMF. (I'm still not sure if they were accepted) My evil opinion says that they, the South, were worried. Anyway, the North Koreans have got big problems. They also happen to have a million or so troops just a stone's throw North of the DMZ, which, is not all that far from Seoul...what 30 miles? With the IMF about to hand the South 60 or so Billion dollars, I'm curious as to how the North Korean leadership views this bailout? Their people are starving, yet $60B is given to the wealthy South? They must know that time is running out for thier government. What will be their reaction? Will they just go quietly? If so, why are they sending spy submarines into South Korean harbors, as one was captured recently. Don't get me wrong, I'm not predicting any imminent invasion of South Korea by the North, but I believe the potential is there. Having said that, assume, for a moment, that the North did come across the DMZ. How many hours later would it before Mainland China invaded Free China ( Taiwan ). This, in my humble evil opinion, would happen. Recent statements by the Chinese "not ruling out a forced reunification" confirm this. Recent statements by the evil one, President Clinton, indicate that we wouldn't intercede. The US Naval forces have been drawn down to a point where there would be virtually nothing that we could do to counter this move conventionally. My point is this, a large percentage of the world's semiconductor manufacturing capacity exists in financially and politically unstable areas of the world. Micron exists in the most stable environment of all. Maybe the reason that MU does not achieve what so many seem to think is a reasonable multiple, is that there is always the possiblility that some of the world's capacity has the potential to just disappear? Dr. Evil is anticipating loads of flak over this post. Remember, its just offered as something to consider when looking at the whole picture. Mr. Bigglesworth is scratching a message into the his litter box! It says "MU@45 by Jan. '99"!!! Good Night, Dr. Evil