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To: Zardoz who wrote (15088)	7/31/1998 7:11:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116758

>>BUT with the one excpetion... an increasing USD. Thus driving Gold down, with the US equities. 25-55% from 9350 high. >> An increasing USD against Yen, leading to yuan trouble, but unlikely against European currencies, as capital moves-out of US stocks back to Europe..and Japan and China forced to finance their massive public projects by themself (selling dollars) Dollar is down against Euro and Gold..I see that scenario right after November elections...

To: Zardoz who wrote (15088)	7/31/1998 9:47:00 PM
From: Ken Clayton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116758

One thing to consider is that if a full blown deflation were to hit the US, with the value of equities, commodities, and real estate decreasing, the actions of the bond market may not be to go up as many have surmised. After all with the value of every thing else going down what will keep the value of a bond up? Capital flows, flight to safety many say. But you have to remember what is happening to the SE Asian countries at this time is a full blown inflation, everything is more expensive to them including US debt. As the Yen heads towards 200/USD, inflation will rack Japan and the $1 trillion of capital flows expected to hit US markets will not materialize. Inflation is eventually what will be exported to the US.This will be the big surprise. A world crash this time will not be deflationary as it was in the 20's, the key being the magnitude of the interest bearing US debt. If the bond tanks and interest rates skyrocket, how will the US government fund the deficits? Remember we're not likely to have budget surpluses with a severely contracted economy. There's only two ways out - a default (not too likely) or a massive monetization by the FED and thus inflation. Kenny

To: Zardoz who wrote (15088)	7/31/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116758

Hutch: I agree with Bobby Beara that we are close to a capitulation bottom for POG and XAU. I do expect marginal new lows for both followed by a huge rally. Capitulation trough requires huge volume in XAU components. Have not seen this yet, but we will soon. BTW, there is no way we will have a continued bull in the dollar if stocks tank. Foreigners have invested huge sums in our stock market. This money will flow back where it came from in a massive torrent once the owners are convinced the US stock bull is over. That is why I expect gold to trough far earlier than the stock market.

To: Zardoz who wrote (15088)	7/31/1998 11:23:00 PM
From: PaulM	Respond to of 116758

"The savings rate of American consumers...has shriveled to almost nothing" dailynews.yahoo.com Chalk up another for "the coming deflation" argument.

To: Zardoz who wrote (15088)	8/1/1998 2:02:00 AM
From: Lucky Lady	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116758

Hutch, NAFTA and GATT assured deflation. A couple of days ago I made a deflation argument but was met with denial. I agree that is where we are headed. With lost retirement savings and home equity the baby boomers will be in shock. We have consumed our way into huge debt with no savings. The prosperity the president keeps telling us about is smoke and mirrors. Our dollars are just paper...not true wealth...If we lose confidence in the system, where is the value? Remember the Confederate currency? A wheel barrow of dollars wouldn't buy a loaf of bread! The American people voted for this. LL