To: JMD who wrote (13187 ) 7/31/1998 10:41:00 PM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
***a little more of the dismals... then I'll quit*** Mike, "...the economists' version of Yin and Yang, and it is a never ending dance. I wouldn't throw all your monetary NZ dollars at anything cause it's only a matter of time till dough comes back into its own." Okay, all the rest of your post was spot on, but sticking with this a minute. This makes sense to me too, in that the Yin and Yang, woe and joy, greed and fear, will see interest rates rise and fall, and markets rise and fall too. But if I just ride out the ups and downs, without getting kicked off the bucking bronco on a down bump, what does it matter? The shares which create real value always beat the interest rates in the long run, though not in many short runs. I collect the difference between the interest rates and income from the shares as my payment for being a good allocator of capital. If that pay rate narrows too much, I have to stop the borrowing and leave it to the experts, but if it broadens, then I can up the ante a bit more. The interest rates being the interface between the money and the shares. Sure, cloned dough will come into its own again and zoom up relative to shares, but if I follow your advice and hold some dough instead of shares, I'm suffering opportunity cost and letting somebody else be the capital allocator. So, why not pour all my clones into Q.com and simply ride out the waves? Even more, why not borrow a tad from those who lack the confidence to do it themselves, provided of course that others haven't borrowed so much that interest rates are getting high and my 'spread' is getting a bit too narrow for my ability? Only a tad, because if interest rates double and shares drop 70%, things could get sticky indeed if I have more than a tad borrowed. I need to be able to ride out such a trough and come out laughing the other side when Mighty Q sells its billionth cdma2000 Anita [TM]. At which time the Yin will have turned to Yang and all will be hunky dory again. Interest rates will drop again but I'll have already raised the ante some more. Yes? Mqurice PS: Your sheepskin seems very well earned. Thanks for your clear explanations. And how could you join with Ramsey's gang of reprobates? After me singlehandedly hyping the Q.com [well, a bit of help from Renby] price from $48 to $63 and reducing GSTRF from $36 to $24 giving you enormous Yin and Yang opportunities. The $63 is actually $80 as predicted because if you discount the Nasdaq drop and the Yin Yang move-to-money factorization, with cloning of multiple birthed dollars, $63 and $80 are exactly the same. Hence the drop from the high of $67. I expect next week, the Yang of Q.com will reassert itself and the $63 will again convert to its true $80. As you say, these cubby holes are tricky. I don't have any numbers, but from $ill Gates to most people on these threads, people are holding cash because they KNOW the biggest bull market ever is not going to defy gravity and will fall to earth. So it seems to me that interest rate are cheap, visionary rewards are high and risks are low. Since everyone knows the absurdly high Dow will tumble, I suspect it won't. With 7% interest rates, and Green$pan printing rolling on full steam it seems well on the Yang side still. Actually, the gravity analogy seems more stretched than the clones. It suggests there is a natural level which is lower. Not so! There is no natural level. Just as you say, the play between Main Street and Wall Street. So, am I on safe ground and going to make more money? Brain failure anywhere? I'll pay your Ramsey Su fee if you rescue me from a mistake or can we quid pro quo the 72-48 opportunity? You think Ramsey will collect many $500? Good scheme! Oh oh, 1000 words and they are breeding faster than Green$pan clones.