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To: Dom B. who wrote (48972)	8/1/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE ---------------------------- As previously indicated it had surprised me that Friday reversed so hard to the downside, having absolutely no follow-thru for Thursday's nice upswing. Well, I guess the question is where do we go from here and how will it occur. Obviously, I am very negative to the market now so I strongly feel we are heading down and very possibly down alot, and it could happen very fast. The technicals are so oversold we should at least get some sort of bounce early next week, MON/TUE, at least intraday. Here are the next resistance lines, and all of them are strong: 9025-9050 *** feel this will hold if market gets that high 9100 9220 As for timing, I had previously indicated the the top of the short-term upswing would arrive in the 4 day period of July 30-Aug 2(THUR-TUE). I will still stick to this time frame and that the short-term top would be close to THUR & FRI's high of 9041. Here's an interesting tidbit. For the last 6 trading days the high for the DOW, each day was within 43 points (starting with 7/24: 8998/9028/9019/9001/9041/9030). The downswing should start by by mid week (WED/THUR-could be as early as TUES) and should last for for 5-8 trading days. There are 2 important support lines, the first at 8750 and the real important one at 8570. At this point I feel that 8750 should be easily broken, then the big test at 8570. So, my target is the 8600 range for this 5-8 day forthcoming downswing. If and when we hit the 8600 range we should see some sort of bounce to the upside, possibly back to the 8900-9050 range. Then another retest of 8570. If 8570 does not hold the 2nd time around well that would be enough confirmation for me that we could see the 7000's(strong support at 7700-7800). For a little longer outlook I see most of AUG being down with an upsing at the end of AUG into the first week of SEPT and then the big down-movement. This would be the timing for the highest probability of the DOW getting below 8000. 1) 8600 RANGE BY 3RD WEEK OF AUGUST 2) UPSWING AT END OF AUGUST INTO 1ST WEEK OF SEPT TO 8900-9050 RANGE 3) BIG DOWNSWING BELOW 8000 TO START 2ND WEEK/MID SEPT 4) RANGE TRADING FOR REST OF SEPT/OCT/NOV (500-700 POINT RANGE) 5) WONT SEE 10000 THIS YEAR Of course we need confirmation of resistance lines holding and support lines breaking and market internals remaining poor. Seeya