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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (15532)	8/1/1998 9:59:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Puff, Once again you appear to really internalize your feelings about the market. I'm glad to see that you're passionate about your feelings and I do appreciate you perspective. If I may, let me clarify a few points.. Oh, and I'll ignore your first paragraph as I believe it was intended for someone else. First, go to Japan to learn about mattress money and what overspeculation can and will do to an economy. Perhaps I'm wrong but I believe the Japanese market is a different animal. First their going through their own banking crisis - over $1Trillion in debt (remember our banking crisis..it was painful too). Also, the majority of the Japanese economy is closed and government subsidized. Little open trade and no money in government to subsidize coupled with bank failures = disaster. Their problems in the market are merely a symptom of an underlying problem. However, I agree with you - there are macro-cycles we should be watching and it is likely we don't maintain high employment levels forever. In fact, when the baby boomers begin retiring there is projected net out-flow from the funds. All the data I've reviewed on this suggest this will beging sometime between 2005 and 2010....so I think we have a few more years to ride the bull. Sure, this is just my opinion which I am entitled to as you are to yours. ;) Oh really? We're two weeks into a probable sustained bear market and you're professing Cisco's "strength?" I bet you all thought Cisco was going to go up today. Thursday was a classic bear trap and you all got caught. Not sure what your intent is here. I do believe I said CSCO is holding up in this market. Let me share a couple of charts with you... quote.yahoo.com quote.yahoo.com quote.yahoo.com quote.yahoo.com Notice that every one of these charts have one thing in common...share price flucutations as the valuation continues to move up and to the right ... even right through the late 80's/early90's recession. Yes, stock values will get hit and if you're a day trader you could take a pounding...but if you're in a stock for the long term every investment counsler will tell you that you are better off than inflation and therefore making out better than the preverbial mattress or in a CD or T-bill. For liquidity purposes one should always have a portion of thier portfolio in liquid assest so one is not forced to sell when the market is off. Anyway, I appreciate your concern over our portofolio here as CSCO. Yeah right! That's why Cisco's margins were being crimped last year. You need to go back a research this. Although Chambers kept saying margins would be impacted they in fact improved last year :) A couple of years ago people like you claimed the growth rate of the networking industry could be 50%/annum -- that's what fueled the absurd stock levels of ASND, CSCC, COMS, etc...well, guess what? Guess what what? Growth rates up until only recently have indeed been 50%. This year - now that CSCO generated $6.4B in revenues last year will sadly be only a 30% growth rate... Yeah, too bad that CSCO can only add over $2B in revenue during this past year. BUT, the internet and build-out of carrier nets to support this new infrastructure hasn't really started yet. Growth rates will probably hold at 30% for the industry but some companies will do better than others. as more players enter that market, individual growth rates WILL fall! It's simple economics. More players get bought you mean? THere is industry consolidation going on right now...or haven't you noticed? NT buys Bay, LU is lurking. ASND buys SRA. AT&T and TWC and BT, GTE and who was it?, MCI and Worldcom...and the beat goes on....these were all announced during the last 6 or so months!!! Furthermore, CSCO has shown a uncanny ability to take business away from competitors which is, in part, what the companies you pointed out earlier (COMS, ASND, BAY, etc.) got pounded - they couldn't make their numbers in the face of the CSCO juggernaut. That's another good reason to be in CSCO or perhaps LU. ASND is now back and I like the price their at now...got hit hard on Friday for all the wrong reasons. VALUATION. I don't care how good the company is...when inflows stop, valuations will be questioned. A recession is coming that's what I'm trying to tell you. Read the economic indicators. Unemployment=less inflows=bear market. Cash will be king as the fallout is recognized. So, Puff...when will this happen? You seem to be saying we should all sell today and put our money into....what? Help me out here. The banks - that lost billions 10 years ago? At what, 5.5% interest. For most folks here that would be multiple banks since we can only be insured for $100K per. T-bills? That's even less liquid than securities...as are CD's. Should we invest in Citibank? Perhaps that's a play...but then their fortunes too are tied to the market aren't they. Puff, I'd like to hear your ideas. Rather than tell us to run...tell us where to run to. Gary

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (15532)	8/31/1998 7:58:00 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Respond to of 77400

To: Gary (15528 ) From: Puff Daddy Saturday, Aug 1 1998 2:04AM ET Reply # of 16629 To the guy who cared to post my previous responses on various threads: it's called sarcasm...I suggest you learn it. I mock your people for you zombie like affection for these stocks (particularly the DELL thread). <<Interesting post. So, the market turns bad.... folks run for the doors and put their money in...where...the mattress? Where's the big money going to go...more importantly and more significantly where's the small money going to go - the mutual funds and 401K? >> First, go to Japan to learn about mattress money and what overspeculation can and will do to an economy. Anyway, the premise behind that statement is that there will be continual inflows of money. That premise is flawed because it assumes consistent economic growth and current employment levels to be maintained. Sorry dude. Ever heard of economic cycles? It's a simple concept; what comes up must come down and we will be headed for a slowdown at best. <<That's why they're holding up in this market ... as well as anyone can hope anyway.>> Oh really? We're two weeks into a probable sustained bear market and you're professing Cisco's "strength?" I bet you all thought Cisco was going to go up today. Thursday was a classic bear trap and you all got caught. <<What's more there is a signficant barrier to entry - >> Yeah right! That's why Cisco's margins were being crimped last year. A couple of years ago people like you claimed the growth rate of the networking industry could be 50%/annum -- that's what fueled the absurd stock levels of ASND, CSCC, COMS, etc...well, guess what? That growth rate got cut to 30% and still remains there...and guess what...as more players enter that market, individual growth rates WILL fall! It's simple economics. <<True market fluctuations will effect every stock, but CSCO, LU, ASND, and other strong networkers are a great place for long term money. You can take that to the bank.>> VALUATION, VALUATION, VALUATION. I don't care how good the company is...when inflows stop, valuations will be questioned. A recession is coming that's what I'm trying to tell you. Read the economic indicators. Unemployment=less inflows=bear market. Cash will be king as the fallout is recognized. HAHAHAHAHAHA...VINDICATION.

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (15532)	10/1/1998 7:03:00 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

UNCANNY...READ THE WHOLE POST. To: Gary (15528 ) From: Puff Daddy Saturday, Aug 1 1998 2:04AM ET Reply # of 17589 To the guy who cared to post my previous responses on various threads: it's called sarcasm...I suggest you learn it. I mock your people for you zombie like affection for these stocks (particularly the DELL thread). <<Interesting post. So, the market turns bad.... folks run for the doors and put their money in...where...the mattress? Where's the big money going to go...more importantly and more significantly where's the small money going to go - the mutual funds and 401K? >> First, go to Japan to learn about mattress money and what overspeculation can and will do to an economy. Anyway, the premise behind that statement is that there will be continual inflows of money. That premise is flawed because it assumes consistent economic growth and current employment levels to be maintained. Sorry dude. Ever heard of economic cycles? It's a simple concept; what comes up must come down and we will be headed for a slowdown at best. <<That's why they're holding up in this market ... as well as anyone can hope anyway.>> Oh really? We're two weeks into a probable sustained bear market and you're professing Cisco's "strength?" I bet you all thought Cisco was going to go up today. Thursday was a classic bear trap and you all got caught. <<What's more there is a signficant barrier to entry - >> Yeah right! That's why Cisco's margins were being crimped last year. A couple of years ago people like you claimed the growth rate of the networking industry could be 50%/annum -- that's what fueled the absurd stock levels of ASND, CSCC, COMS, etc...well, guess what? That growth rate got cut to 30% and still remains there...and guess what...as more players enter that market, individual growth rates WILL fall! It's simple economics. <<True market fluctuations will effect every stock, but CSCO, LU, ASND, and other strong networkers are a great place for long term money. You can take that to the bank.>> VALUATION, VALUATION, VALUATION. I don't care how good the company is...when inflows stop, valuations will be questioned. A recession is coming that's what I'm trying to tell you. Read the economic indicators. Unemployment=less inflows=bear market. Cash will be king as the fallout is recognized.