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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PaperChase who wrote (17548)	8/1/1998 8:03:00 AM
From: Craig Stevenson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29386

PaperChase, Yes, I've been averaging down every time I think we have bottomed. I thought $3 was providing pretty solid support prior to the conference call, then $2 after the call, and finally $1 1/2. The move on Friday seemed a little out of place, but it was the end of the month, and so I attribute most of that to brokers cleaning up their accounts. Admittedly, there are a lot of "ifs" in my logic, but there are several things that make me think that Ancor has a chance. 1. They have good technology. 2. They continue to hire (and keep) quality people. 3. The Fibre Channel market is heating up on the adapter, storage, and hub sides, and switch sales can't be too far behind. 4. Their market cap is very low, compared to the price that Vixel paid for Arcxel. 5. A case can finally be made for ANCR having a fairly reasonable valuation, based on fundamentals. (Price to sales, price to book, etc.) 6. I do NOT believe that Ancor's management or employees are incompetent. The last quarter's numbers clearly indicate that virtually 100% of Ancor's revenues were from the LAN side of the business, and that 90% or so was from Hucom. The fact that the Japanese crisis finally got to Hucom isn't terribly surprising, but it is out of Ancor's control. Since there isn't a SAN market yet, excluding Sequent, Ancor's revenues dropped precipitously. I do wish that Ancor management would take more time to articulate their vision of the Fibre Channel market, and show us the light at the end of the tunnel. I think there are several steps that could be taken to do this: 1. Show us that financing options are still available. This would alleviate the concerns about viability and delisting. 2. Show us that the MKII has (or soon will have) all the features wanted by potential OEM customers. 3. Show us the results of a head to head competition between the MKII and the SilkWorm. (An OEM win would probably suffice. <g>) 4. Articulate a vision for the future. 5. Develop some cutting-edge products that prove that Ancor's technological lead hasn't evaporated. The biggest problem here is the lack of investor confidence. Most of us long-time bulls just haven't had any resources to use to effectively fight the bears, and the stock price reflects that. Many of the rumors over on Yahoo could be quashed in short order if Ancor would announce a single OEM that contradicted Bullstroke. As it is, most of us are just hanging on, waiting for that first sign of life. If we get it, look out. <g> Craig