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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (6281)	8/1/1998 9:40:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 42834

Re: "I'm impressed by the strong negativity of some on AMAT board with some talking about put buying and shorting into this rally, may bolster the case that we're near a bottom ..." I guess it depends on your definition of "near a bottom." We are about 30% above the 52 week low, so from my point of view, we are not "near a bottom" on AMAT. Near a bottom was 25% ago. Best wishes, I2

To: marc ultra who wrote (6281)	8/1/1998 10:37:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Marc: I view the recent strength in the large cap semi equipment stock as sector rotation, pure and simple, with no fundamental support. The fact the the strength in this group coincided with the volatility last week suggests that the bog boys were yanking money from other sectors and placing it into this one for lack of a better idea on what to with their churn. The fact that KLIC and TER were nowhere to be found in this rally and the fact that, overall, the small and medium semi equipment stocks were flat to down suggests to me that this move is just rotational noise. TER is the best value on the block in the large cap semi equipment stocks IMO. I would not buy AMAT and NVLS at these levels. I would not chase them here at all. In fact, I might short some in a trading stance if this strength continues as a hedge against my long position. I am neutral on the KLAC price. UTEK is a special situation because of the short position and its improving fundamentals. I suspected that UTEK was going to wiff big time and miss estimates when Art Z was out selling his company with the big picture the day after the quarter closed. (Motivation does matter). The company blew the quarter completely and takes huge charges and the stock goes up with some positive comments on improving fundamentals. With this short position and the perception of improving fundamentals, UTEK is a zombie stock. You can set fire to it, shoot it, blow it up and the price holds steady or keeps moving forwards in small steady steps. Don't be fooled by the AMAT board. Many of the short sellers and put buyers are pissed that this stock has not gone a notch below its low for the year and are taking the only action that is available to them. They are closet bulls and are ticked off that their price has not come into view and they are expressing their anger by going short or buying puts. They seek to impose rationality (in their view) on the AMAT stock price. But institutions can and will move these stocks if that is their decision for whatever reason or for no reason at all. All we can do is react. So I would not chase these big cap semi equipment stocks here. The only reaction here should be inaction in my view. TER does look good in the confines of a dollar cost averaging program. ASMLF below $28 is a good entry price. I would wait for this sector to come back to you and give you a better price on NVLS and AMAT and KLAC for that matter. You should see at least a couple more opportunities (the probabilities favor it but there are no guarantees) because the fundamentals (orders) have not improved and will not improve for the forseeable future. Keep in mind (FWIW) that Brett Hodess recently changed his opinion on this sector. He thinks that one should start to consider buying these companies and that he and Brinker are usually pretty much on the same page: techstocks.com BTW, I have not listened to Brinker's program yet today so I do not know if he covered this topic.