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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Khalid R. Khan who wrote (26856)	8/1/1998 10:08:00 AM
From: wolfdog2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

KRK, a 144 form is to register shares. Not sell shares. The insider may simply want to put the shares in his account and borrow against them. Your post makes lots of sense. Unfortunately, what you intend to do now is what you should have done a while ago. Unless tax loss selling is your primary consideration, I would suggest to you that now is not the time to sell. Oh, and at least one insider agrees with me. He, I think a director, just purchased 1000 shares of EVI. Check insidertrader.com.

To: Khalid R. Khan who wrote (26856)	8/1/1998 12:18:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Khalid R. Khan.....welcome aboard o' Sage One from Yahoo-Land... Folks; get prepared.....Mr. Khan will tell it like it is. Before anyone gets started on this ''newbie'' ; let me add my endorsement (for the 2 cents its worth) that this guy has a track record that HAS been proven over time of interpreting the condition of the patch and making some great calls & analysis. Add this guy to your ''Bookmark'' list. (you too 'fancypants' - you know who you are). Khalid; I disagree, respectfully so; but it is good to have someone with a little wit and intelligence to add a little balance here. I agree that overall in the 'Patch; a lot more stocks are more likely to go lower rather than higher - short term. However I do think that on a selective, individual company basis - this is 'THE" time to be buying here. If one is quick and observant - there are some great opportunities here. DRQ just had a great earnings release and yesterday had a $1 3/8 -- 8%+ selloff to a new 52 week low, triggering an over-reaction selloff. We have a lot of stocks that are near 52 week lows and/or near mathematical borders (your power of tens theory here- Khalid) like $10 or $20 etc. where stop limits and psychological price points can be taken out - which lead to an over-reaction sell off. GW is a good example. This stock has been in a trading range of $2 1/8 low bid to $3 high ask over the last 2 weeks. Yesterday it established a new 52 week low closing at $2. This stock as well presents a great buying opportunity ! GW just released earnings with good revenue growth, Rig utilization within 5% of last year, but it had disappointing year over year earnings comparisons. When I read this - I anticipated a new low, as the land drillers are the last rung on the Oil Patch ladder... I expected people to bail out of GW off this news - but saw a bright spot in that GW acknowledged that they are in a strong cash position to ride out any storms, this = buying opp ! Gw did selloff to $2 and this is a nice buy as a 1/4 point move is a 25% profit ! also, a drop to $1 1/2 does not take a lot to average down to $1 3/4 and the ability to recoup cost basis on these small moves can not be ignored. At under $5 - it can not be shorted...and at $2 it will attract an entire new set of ''penny-stock'' bottom fishers. Your point on EVI's insider selling is right on the money ! Insider selling or buying in these present market conditions can not be ignored and should be used as a PRIMARY indicator to sell or buy. The dirty deed done by DLJ is also a wake up call on analyst games. I especially like to read the disclosures to see if an analyst's firm has done any work for the company in question. Neutral recommendations obviously carry a lot more weight. Where we disagree perhaps, is now I am looking for big one day moves on EVI to buy it ! EVI is one of the best run and most fundamentally solid companies in the sector - this situation has led or will continue to lead to an over-reaction and I want to be there when it happens... FLC is quite another story. They were one of my favorites - huge deepwater capacity coming online soon, tremendous EPS growth going forward - but big insider selling and tanking big time. Their high debt status is not favorable when compared to say DO & the lower dayrates really affect them and they can go $2-$4 lower very easilly here. Beyond that area - FLC is at the top of my buy list. Bottom line....follow the money. On owning the overall market at these prices; again I respectfully disagree. I want to buy the oilpatch selectively TODAY and the overall market (CSCO MSFT ...) TOMORROW ! - hopefully at DOW 7000 - 7500 levels... Khalid...PS: what about SDC here without having any GOM exposure and corresponding dayrate softness - has the baby been thrown out with the bathwater ? 34% profit margins and NO DEBT - my kind of company here... if only PTEN would blow off to about $5 - I'll start on the land drillers.

To: Khalid R. Khan who wrote (26856)	8/1/1998 3:09:00 PM
From: SJS	Respond to of 95453

Jumping from losses in oil services (50% you say? Join the club...) INTO YAHOO, is like going from the frying pan into the fire.... Make it up smartly, not quickly.

To: Khalid R. Khan who wrote (26856)	8/1/1998 8:37:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Respond to of 95453

Holding the oil services group (given the pathetic conditions) must be weighed against the opportunity cost of not owning MSFT DELL LU CSCO YHOO CA NOK.A WLA TRV etc. Why not buy what the market favors today? Loss from EVI could easily be made up by buying YHOO or MSFT or LU. Khalid, your rationale is a perfect formula for implementing the "buy high, sell low" strategy, IMO. Why are you so certain that a flying pig like YHOO will be outperforming drillers going forward? Certainly in retrospect, 1998 has seen internuts as the exact opposite as the drillers - out of 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily, the internet stocks have held the #1 position for three months in a row, while the Drillers were at 186 3 mos ago, and have been on the bottom at 197 for 3 weeks...I ask you, in the course of the next 12 months, do you seriously see the internuts holding the #1 rank for ongoing stock price improvement, while the drillers hold the bottom rank at 197? Granted that "the trend is your friend", and this is a very powerful phenomenon, which investors ignore at their peril. But at some point, the trend reverses. I don't see oil consumption going out of style, and so these companies won't be going bankrupt due to lack of demand for product. There could be further consolidation in the form of mergers and buyouts though. Oil prices have in fact stabilized near $14, give or take $1, and OPEC is working on implementing the promised cuts. I personally was impressed to read of the cutbacks actually implemented by the Persian Gulf states so far. The window is now closed for trading the August futures contracts, so now the nearest contract is Sept and later, which puts us into the fall-winter expirations...remember that the transport companies like airlines etc have to keep buying fuel...as supply/demand gets close to equilibrium, the price stabilizes...I just think we're closer to the bottom of this year's carnage than most people think. I admit that I thought the same thing back in April, but I realized that this patch was more dangerous than I thought, so I bailed for a small profit days after the second round of OPEC cuts, and have stayed the heck away from this sector since then; have only watched from afar with wide-eyed wonder as CDG came crashing right back down...watched RDC melt and melt and melt, same for PDE. Bought RDC for $14 and change last Thursday with 1/2 my IRA account, which had been earning 6% in a money market for awhile. Book value on RDC is $8.50ish...