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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (22366)	8/1/1998 11:31:00 AM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

BK, Re: "Although it's anyone's guess, my guess is that Smatrmoney will opt for the latter." You have been repeating this "Smatrmoney" chatter for a year now. Though we've yet to see this happen. Re: " We are tired of the same old 'its going to 12' or 'its got to hit a PSR of 1 before heading up.'" Talk about paper tigers that are not even worthy of comment. Not a single regular threader has EVER said it's got to go to 12 or hit a PSR of 1. If that's the best the bulls can do, they are in big trouble. God, JS, GK, GM, RS, someone, please save me from this complete and utter BS ...

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (22366)	8/1/1998 6:03:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

brian and teri: since God hasn't Spoken (at least not in a voice loud enough for me to hear Her), I will: All of us are getting a bit irritable. The bulls are tired of the endless false rallies, and the closet bulls=long term only bulls=bears, are worrying about missing the upturn. Lets try to be polite, and help each other make money, even if sometimes we think "that person is deaf, dumb, and blind". We will all have our turns being the dunce. By selling all my AMAT, and now shorting at 32, I am knowingly taking a risk. On current evidence, I think today the risk of being long is greater than the risk of being short. As I've posted (about 98 times), 13 is my edge-of-the-envelope-everything-that-can-go-wrong-does-price. For that price to be reached, we would have to have a general market downturn (more than 15%), sentiment reach the same level it was mid-1996, and semi-equip orders stay flat-to-down through 1999. It could happen, but I'll cover my shorts, and begin going long, quite a bit above that level. As I've said before, I have been very surprised that AMAT has stayed above 26. I may continue to be surprised. re: "where do you think fund managers are going to look? For stocks hitting new 52 week highs on a daily basis?" Yes, I do. As best as I can tell, the smartmoney (actually, the biganddumbmoney, because they've underperformed me and the indexes for a long time) is very nervous. They have to be fully into equities, because the market just keeps on going up. On the other hand, they see all the same things I posted in my WARNING. All the money managers who use value criteria have been fired for poor results. A few GARPers survive, but mostly the momentum guessers are in charge. So, they've reacted by an ever-narrower focus on "safe" stocks. "Safe" they define as big caps with predictable and growing earnings over the next 12 months. And they've bid those "safe" stocks (notice my use of quotation marks) up to unsafe PE levels now. This is going to end badly, with KO at a PE of 197, and every other stock defined as unsafe. And they know this, too. By this definition, AMAT (and NVLS and CYMI and every other semi-equip) is unsafe. Only AMAT qualifies as big cap. Earnings are not predictable. Earnings will not be up in the next 12 months. If anyone has any facts to contradict this, please post them. I'd love to be wrong on this. More of my bottom indicators are happening. But not nearly enough. AMAT and MU are up because the sector ("the sector" being broadly and vaguely defined as "chips") is rotating into favor, and the stocks are being bought without regard to individual qualities. Micron is not going to make profits through 1999. I may short it if it shows any more strength. Another thought: An uptick in the BTB will signal the bottom only if this downturn is a short sharp V-shape, like 1996. If it's a prolonged U-shape, then we may see orders=book stabilize at a low level (500-700 million?) for over 6 months. Billings will then decline more gradually, and eventually decline enough to meet the bookings level at 500-700 million. At the end of this process, the BTB will have gradually climbed up to 1.00. Anyone who used the upturn in the BTB to buy would have bought way to soon. I'll wait for an upturn in orders. AMAT is not going to see orders pick up before early 1999 (soonest possible). Again, anyone with different data please post. I thought 32 was the top of the trading range, but I was wrong. Maybe 35. Maybe even 39, but that would be a stretch. I'll short all the way up to 39. If we break above 40, then I cover and take my losses. Otherwise, I wait for 26 or below. No guts, no glory.